Uganda Premier League
UPDFHomeWLLL
0:1Half-time 0:0
URAAwayLDLWW353035
UPDF winDrawURA win
UPDFHomeWLLLURAAwayLDLWW- Kick-off Tue 27 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.26 1.13 : 1.13
- Favourite
- 35% URA
- Over 2.5 goals
- 39% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 47% model chance
- Prices compared
- 2 in the odds table
Best odds for UPDF vs URA
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 2.61 | 2.89 | 2.54 | 2.24 | 1.55 | 1.88 | 1.79 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 2.84 | 2.90 | 2.48 | - | - | - | - | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
URA to win partner prices
The top 1X2 prices for UPDF vs URA are 2.84 for UPDF at BC.Game, 2.90 for the draw at BC.Game and 2.54 for URA at 1xBet.
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 91.7%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 2.24 (1xBet) and under 2.5 1.55 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.88 (1xBet) and no 1.79 (1xBet).
Each row of the table is one bookmaker and the green cell is the top price in that column. A Bet button means a partner link that we count; rows without one are there for comparison.
70%
Our prediction
UPDF or URA (no draw)
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
61% chance1.55
BTTSNot both teams to score
53% chance1.79
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
66% chance1.52fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
13% chance7.52fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time UPDF, full-time UPDF
20% chance4.90fair
First halfFirst-half goal
64% chance1.57fair
UPDF vs URA prediction
Our UPDF vs URA prediction and pick
Nothing separates the sides in the UPDF vs URA prediction for Tuesday, 27 October 2026: 35% home, 30% draw and 35% away in the Uganda Premier League. A match this tight rewards the double chance and the goal markets more than a straight pick.
The goal expectancy is 2.26 in total, split 1.13 to UPDF and 1.13 to URA. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 39% and both teams to score 47%.
One score grid produces every chance here: the 1X2 split, the goal lines, BTTS and the scorelines all come from the same pair of expected goals.
The pick for UPDF vs URA is uPDF or URA (no draw), a 70% chance. The best price in our comparison is 1.32 at BC.Game, which implies 76%, so the model sits 5 points below the market.
The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.
Over the last 4 matches UPDF stand at 1 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats; URA show 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats in 5.
A low-scoring UPDF vs URA? Under 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 66%, over 2.5 at 39%, over 3.5 at 19%; under 2.5 is 61% and under 3.5 is 81%.
Under 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 61%; 1xBet pay 1.55.
BTTS yes stands at 47%. UPDF score in 68% of simulations against a 32% clean sheet for URA; URA score in 68% while UPDF shut them out 32% of the time.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for UPDF vs URA: 1-1 (13.3%), 0-1 (11.8%) and 1-0 (11.8%).
A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.
Half-time / full-time: half-time UPDF, full-time UPDF is the top combination at 20%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 64%.
Every market rated for UPDF vs URA
The grid built from 1.13 and 1.13 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
UPDF to win35%2.84
Draw30%2.90
URA to win35%2.54
UPDF, draw no bet50%fair 2.00
URA, draw no bet50%fair 2.00
Double chance
UPDF or draw65%1.43
URA or draw65%1.35
UPDF or URA (no draw)70%1.32
Goals
Over 0.5 goals90%fair 1.12
Over 1.5 goals66%fair 1.52
Over 2.5 goals39%2.24
Over 3.5 goals19%fair 5.18
Over 4.5 goals8%fair 12.66
Under 1.5 goals34%fair 2.94
Under 2.5 goals61%1.55
Under 3.5 goals81%fair 1.24
BTTS
Both teams to score47%1.88
Not both teams to score53%1.79
Halves
First-half goal64%fair 1.57
Over 1.5 first-half goals27%fair 3.70
Second-half goal71%fair 1.41
Team goals
UPDF to score68%fair 1.48
URA to score68%fair 1.48
UPDF clean sheet32%fair 3.10
URA clean sheet32%fair 3.10
UPDF to win to nil30%fair 3.37
URA to win to nil30%fair 3.37
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.02
Even number of goals51%fair 1.98
Most likely scores
1-113.3%
0-111.8%
1-011.8%
0-010.4%
1-27.5%
2-17.5%
Half-time / full-time
UPDF / UPDF20.4%
URA / URA20.4%
Draw / Draw19%
Draw / URA13.6%
Draw / UPDF13.6%
Questions about UPDF vs URA
Who will win UPDF vs URA?
The model gives URA the best chance at 35%, with the draw at 30%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.
UPDF vs URA correct score: what does the model say?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 13.3%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 39%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
UPDF vs URA both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 47%. UPDF find the net in 68% of simulated matches and URA in 68%.
When is UPDF vs URA and where is the result shown?
Kick-off is 13:00 UTC on Tuesday, 27 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.