Copa del Rey
AlcazarHomeWWL
0:3Half-time 0:0
MalagaAwayDLDWL1297
Alcazar winDrawMalaga win
AlcazarHomeWWLMalagaAwayDLDWL- Kick-off Tue 27 Oct
- Expected goals
- 4.62 0.34 : 4.28
- Favourite
- 97% Malaga
- Over 2.5 goals
- 87% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 26% model chance
- Prices compared
- 6 in the odds table
Best odds for Alcazar vs Malaga
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 50.00 | 21.00 | 1.01 | 1.12 | 6.00 | 3.50 | 1.27 | Bet |
 22Bet | 40.00 | 14.50 | 1.04 | - | - | 2.21 | 1.62 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 35.00 | 14.00 | 1.02 | 1.14 | 5.20 | 2.78 | 1.36 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 40.00 | 14.50 | 1.04 | - | - | 2.21 | 1.62 | Bet |
 Melbet | 40.00 | 14.50 | 1.04 | - | - | 2.21 | 1.62 | Bet |
 Stake | 30.00 | 12.00 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Malaga to win partner prices
Best 1X2 lines behind the Alcazar vs Malaga prediction: Alcazar 50.00 (1xBet), draw 21.00 (1xBet), Malaga 1.04 (Melbet).
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 97.2%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 1.14 (BC.Game) and under 2.5 6.00 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 3.50 (1xBet) and no 1.62 (Melbet).
Each row of the table is one bookmaker and the green cell is the top price in that column. A Bet button means a partner link that we count; rows without one are there for comparison.
97%
Our prediction
Malaga to win
Double chanceMalaga or draw
99% chance-
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
87% chance1.14
BTTSNot both teams to score
75% chance1.62
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
93% chance1.07fair
ScorelineCorrect score 0-4
14% chance7.25fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Malaga, full-time Malaga
79% chance1.26fair
Alcazar vs Malaga odds movement
Alcazar win50.00-26.00
Draw21.00-5.00
Malaga win1.04unchanged
Over 2.5 goals1.14unchanged
Under 2.5 goals6.00-1.00
Best price in the comparison at each refresh since the match was first priced on 1 Nov, 12:14 UTC. A shortening price means money has come for that outcome.
Alcazar vs Malaga prediction
Our Alcazar vs Malaga prediction and pick
The Alcazar vs Malaga prediction leans to Malaga: 97% against 1% for Alcazar, with 2% left for the draw, in the Copa del Rey on Tuesday, 27 October 2026.
The goal expectancy is 4.62 in total, split 0.34 to Alcazar and 4.28 to Malaga. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 87% and both teams to score 26%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Malaga to win is the main selection, rated 97%. At 1.04 with Melbet the market prices it at 96%, against 97% from the model.
Malaga or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 99% chance, priced -.
With the draw down at 2%, draw no bet costs little insurance and the 12 line keeps most of the win price.
Form check: Alcazar have won 2 of their last 3 with 3 scored and 4 conceded, Malaga 1 of 5 scoring 8 and conceding 9.
Alcazar vs Malaga over 2.5 goals, BTTS and correct score
Under 2.5 goals is rated 14% and under 3.5 34%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 93% and over 2.5 at 87%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 87%, best priced 1.14 at BC.Game.
The chance of both teams scoring is 26%, built from Alcazar scoring in 29% of runs and Malaga in 99%; clean sheets come at 1% for Alcazar and 71% for Malaga.
Not both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 75%.
Correct score: 0-4 leads at 13.8%, then 0-3 at 12.9% and 0-5 at 11.8%.
A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Malaga, full-time Malaga leads at 79%. A goal before the break is rated 88%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market for Alcazar vs Malaga
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 1% / 2% / 97% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
Alcazar to win1%50.00
Draw2%21.00
Malaga to win97%1.04
Alcazar, draw no bet1%fair 125.00
Malaga, draw no bet99%fair 1.01
Double chance
Alcazar or draw3%14.79
Malaga or draw99%-
Alcazar or Malaga (no draw)98%1.01
Goals
Over 0.5 goals98%fair 1.02
Over 1.5 goals93%fair 1.07
Over 2.5 goals87%1.14
Over 3.5 goals67%fair 1.50
Over 4.5 goals48%fair 2.09
Under 1.5 goals7%fair 14.71
Under 2.5 goals14%6.00
Under 3.5 goals34%fair 2.99
BTTS
Both teams to score26%3.50
Not both teams to score75%1.62
Halves
First-half goal88%fair 1.14
Over 1.5 first-half goals62%fair 1.63
Second-half goal92%fair 1.09
Team goals
Alcazar to score29%fair 3.47
Malaga to score99%fair 1.01
Alcazar clean sheet1%fair 71.43
Malaga clean sheet71%fair 1.40
Alcazar to win to nil1%fair 142.86
Malaga to win to nil66%fair 1.53
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.02
Even number of goals51%fair 1.98
Most likely scores
0-413.8%
0-312.9%
0-511.8%
0-29%
1-44.7%
1-34.4%
Half-time / full-time
Malaga / Malaga79.3%
Draw / Malaga14%
Draw / Draw1.9%
Alcazar / Malaga1.4%
Alcazar / Draw0.5%
Questions about Alcazar vs Malaga
Who will win Alcazar vs Malaga?
The model gives Malaga the best chance at 97%, with the draw at 2%. A chance above 50% means the win is more likely than the other two results combined.
What scoreline is most likely in Alcazar vs Malaga?
0-4 is the most likely scoreline at 13.8%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 87% backs the same picture with less variance.
Alcazar vs Malaga both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 26%. Alcazar find the net in 29% of simulated matches and Malaga in 99%.
When is Alcazar vs Malaga and where is the result shown?
Alcazar vs Malaga starts at 20:00 UTC on Tuesday, 27 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.