LaLiga
Round 10 Friday, 23 October 2026
FT
AlavesHomeDLLDL
1:1Half-time 0:1
MalagaAwayDLDWL602416
Alaves winDrawMalaga win
LaLiga
Round 10 Friday, 23 October 2026
FT
AlavesHomeDLLDLMalagaAwayDLDWL- Kick-off Fri 23 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.58 1.76 : 0.82
- Favourite
- 60% Alaves
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 48% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Best odds for Alaves vs Malaga
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.69 | 3.90 | 5.99 | 2.10 | 1.86 | 1.98 | 1.75 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Alaves to win partner prices
The top 1X2 prices for Alaves vs Malaga are 1.69 for Alaves at 1xBet, 3.90 for the draw at 1xBet and 5.99 for Malaga at 1xBet.
The best-price payout across the three results is 98.5%, several points better than any single book offers here.
For the goals, over 2.5 pays 2.10 (1xBet) and under 2.5 1.86 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.98 (1xBet) and no 1.75 (1xBet).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
60%
Our prediction
Alaves to win
Double chanceAlaves or draw
84% chance1.18
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
53% chance1.86
BTTSNot both teams to score
52% chance1.75
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
73% chance1.37fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-0
13% chance7.52fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Alaves, full-time Alaves
38% chance2.65fair
Alaves vs Malaga odds movement
Alaves win1.69-0.03
Draw3.90unchanged
Malaga win5.99-0.01
Over 2.5 goals2.10unchanged
Under 2.5 goals1.86unchanged
Best price in the comparison at each refresh since the match was first priced on 1 Nov, 12:14 UTC. A shortening price means money has come for that outcome.
Alaves vs Malaga prediction
Alaves vs Malaga prediction and best bet
Alaves are a narrow favourite in the Alaves vs Malaga prediction, rated 60% to win this LaLiga match on Friday, 23 October 2026. Malaga sit at 16% and the draw at 24%.
The goal expectancy is 2.58 in total, split 1.76 to Alaves and 0.82 to Malaga. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 47% and both teams to score 48%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Alaves to win is the main selection, rated 60%. 1xBet offer the top price at 1.69. That price implies 59%, 0 points under the model figure.
For a safer line, alaves or draw covers 84% of outcomes at 1.18.
Alaves average 0.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded across their last 5, Malaga 1.6 and 1.8 across 5.
Goals, BTTS and correct score for Alaves vs Malaga
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 73%, over 2.5 at 47%, over 3.5 at 26%; under 2.5 is 53% and under 3.5 is 74%.
Under 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 53%; 1xBet pay 1.86.
BTTS yes stands at 48%. Alaves score in 83% of simulations against a 17% clean sheet for Malaga; Malaga score in 56% while Alaves shut them out 44% of the time.
The most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 13.3%, followed by 2-0 (11.7%) and 1-1 (10.9%).
With the top scoreline at 13.3%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Alaves vs Malaga; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Alaves, full-time Alaves is the top combination at 38%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 69%.
Every market rated for Alaves vs Malaga
The grid built from 1.76 and 0.82 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Alaves to win60%1.69
Draw24%3.90
Malaga to win16%5.99
Alaves, draw no bet79%fair 1.27
Malaga, draw no bet22%fair 4.65
Double chance
Alaves or draw84%1.18
Malaga or draw41%2.36
Alaves or Malaga (no draw)76%1.32
Goals
Over 0.5 goals92%fair 1.08
Over 1.5 goals73%fair 1.37
Over 2.5 goals47%2.10
Over 3.5 goals26%fair 3.85
Over 4.5 goals12%fair 8.33
Under 1.5 goals27%fair 3.69
Under 2.5 goals53%1.86
Under 3.5 goals74%fair 1.35
BTTS
Both teams to score48%1.98
Not both teams to score52%1.75
Halves
First-half goal69%fair 1.46
Over 1.5 first-half goals32%fair 3.10
Second-half goal76%fair 1.32
Team goals
Alaves to score83%fair 1.21
Malaga to score56%fair 1.79
Alaves clean sheet44%fair 2.27
Malaga clean sheet17%fair 5.81
Alaves to win to nil41%fair 2.47
Malaga to win to nil15%fair 6.67
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99
Most likely scores
1-013.3%
2-011.7%
1-110.9%
2-19.6%
0-07.6%
3-06.9%
Half-time / full-time
Alaves / Alaves37.7%
Draw / Alaves19.4%
Draw / Draw14.8%
Malaga / Malaga9.2%
Draw / Malaga6.9%
Questions about Alaves vs Malaga
Alaves or Malaga: which side does the model back?
The model gives Alaves the best chance at 60%, with the draw at 24%. That is a majority outcome: the win is likelier than a draw and a defeat put together.
Alaves vs Malaga correct score: what does the model say?
1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 13.3%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 47%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Is BTTS likely in Alaves vs Malaga?
The BTTS yes line is rated 48%. Alaves find the net in 83% of simulated matches and Malaga in 56%.
What time does Alaves vs Malaga kick off?
Alaves vs Malaga starts at 19:00 UTC on Friday, 23 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.