Aberdeen vs ST Mirren prediction

Our Aberdeen vs ST Mirren prediction and pick

Aberdeen vs ST Mirren prediction for the Premiership on Saturday, 17 October 2026: the model makes Aberdeen a narrow favourite at 56%, with the draw at 24% and ST Mirren at 20%.

The goal expectancy is 2.88 in total, split 1.84 to Aberdeen and 1.04 to ST Mirren. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 55% and both teams to score 55%.

The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.

Aberdeen to win is the main selection, rated 56%. 1xBet offer the top price at 1.74. That price implies 57%, 2 points over the model figure.

At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on Aberdeen vs ST Mirren.

For a safer line, aberdeen or draw covers 80% of outcomes at 1.19.

Aberdeen average 1.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded across their last 5, ST Mirren 0.8 and 2.2 across 5.

Aberdeen vs ST Mirren goals, both teams to score and half-time forecast

Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 78%, over 2.5 at 55%, over 3.5 at 33%; under 2.5 is 45% and under 3.5 is 67%.

The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 55%, best priced 1.73 at 1xBet.

The chance of both teams scoring is 55%, built from Aberdeen scoring in 84% of runs and ST Mirren in 65%; clean sheets come at 35% for Aberdeen and 16% for ST Mirren.

The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10.7%, followed by 1-0 (10.3%) and 2-1 (9.9%).

A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.

Half-time / full-time: half-time Aberdeen, full-time Aberdeen is the top combination at 35%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 73%.