Taça de Portugal
AVSHomeWWWWL
1:0Half-time 1:0
MoreirenseAwayDLLWW282844
AVS winDrawMoreirense win
AVSHomeWWWWLMoreirenseAwayDLLWW- Kick-off Sat 17 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.38 1.03 : 1.35
- Favourite
- 44% Moreirense
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 49% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
AVS vs Moreirense odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 3.24 | 3.32 | 2.13 | 2.16 | 1.64 | 1.89 | 1.81 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Moreirense to win partner prices
1xBet pay the best AVS price at 3.24, 1xBet lead the draw at 3.32 and 1xBet have Moreirense longest at 2.13.
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 92.7%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 2.16 (1xBet) and under 2.5 1.64 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.89 (1xBet) and no 1.81 (1xBet).
The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.
73%
Our prediction
AVS or Moreirense (no draw)
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
58% chance1.64
BTTSNot both teams to score
52% chance1.81
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
69% chance1.46fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
13% chance7.75fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Moreirense, full-time Moreirense
26% chance3.83fair
First halfFirst-half goal
66% chance1.52fair
AVS vs Moreirense prediction
AVS vs Moreirense prediction, who wins and at what price
Moreirense are marginally ahead in the AVS vs Moreirense prediction, rated 44% to win this Taça de Portugal match on Saturday, 17 October 2026. AVS sit at 28% and the draw at 28%.
The goal expectancy is 2.38 in total, split 1.03 to AVS and 1.35 to Moreirense. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 42% and both teams to score 49%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Our main pick is aVS or Moreirense (no draw) at 73%. The best price in our comparison is 1.29 at 1xBet, which implies 78%, so the model sits 5 points below the market.
The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.
Form check: AVS have won 4 of their last 5 with 8 scored and 4 conceded, Moreirense 2 of 5 scoring 6 and conceding 5.
A low-scoring AVS vs Moreirense? Under 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
Under 2.5 goals is rated 58% and under 3.5 78%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 69% and over 2.5 at 42%.
Under 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 58%; 1xBet pay 1.64.
The chance of both teams scoring is 49%, built from AVS scoring in 64% of runs and Moreirense in 74%; clean sheets come at 26% for AVS and 36% for Moreirense.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12.9%, followed by 0-1 (12.5%) and 1-0 (9.5%).
Even the leading scoreline holds only 12.9% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Moreirense, full-time Moreirense is the top combination at 26%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 66%.
Every market for AVS vs Moreirense
The grid built from 1.03 and 1.35 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
AVS to win28%3.24
Draw28%3.32
Moreirense to win44%2.13
AVS, draw no bet39%fair 2.56
Moreirense, draw no bet61%fair 1.64
Double chance
AVS or draw56%1.64
Moreirense or draw72%1.30
AVS or Moreirense (no draw)73%1.29
Goals
Over 0.5 goals91%fair 1.10
Over 1.5 goals69%fair 1.46
Over 2.5 goals42%2.16
Over 3.5 goals22%fair 4.61
Over 4.5 goals9%fair 10.75
Under 1.5 goals31%fair 3.19
Under 2.5 goals58%1.64
Under 3.5 goals78%fair 1.28
BTTS
Both teams to score49%1.89
Not both teams to score52%1.81
Halves
First-half goal66%fair 1.52
Over 1.5 first-half goals29%fair 3.45
Second-half goal73%fair 1.37
Team goals
AVS to score64%fair 1.56
Moreirense to score74%fair 1.35
AVS clean sheet26%fair 3.86
Moreirense clean sheet36%fair 2.80
AVS to win to nil24%fair 4.18
Moreirense to win to nil33%fair 3.05
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.02
Even number of goals50%fair 1.98
Most likely scores
1-112.9%
0-112.5%
1-09.5%
0-09.3%
1-28.7%
0-28.4%
Half-time / full-time
Moreirense / Moreirense26.1%
Draw / Draw17.7%
AVS / AVS16%
Draw / Moreirense15.9%
Draw / AVS11.1%
Questions about AVS vs Moreirense
Who is favourite in AVS vs Moreirense?
The model gives Moreirense the best chance at 44%, with the draw at 28%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.
What scoreline is most likely in AVS vs Moreirense?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 12.9%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 42%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
AVS vs Moreirense both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 49%. AVS find the net in 64% of simulated matches and Moreirense in 74%.
What time does AVS vs Moreirense kick off?
Kick-off is 15:00 UTC on Saturday, 17 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.