Poland Cup
Polonia WarszawaHomeWWWDW
2:1Half-time 1:0
Korona KielceAwayWLLWL272944
Polonia Warszawa winDrawKorona Kielce win
Polonia WarszawaHomeWWWDWKorona KielceAwayWLLWL- Kick-off Thu 29 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.49 1.06 : 1.43
- Favourite
- 45% Korona Kielce
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 52% model chance
- Prices compared
- 5 in the odds table
Polonia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 3.37 | 3.12 | 2.03 | 1.98 | 1.71 | 1.77 | 1.90 | Bet |
 22Bet | 4.07 | 3.44 | 1.88 | 2.11 | 1.73 | 1.93 | 1.82 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 4.30 | 3.40 | 1.78 | 2.04 | 1.71 | 1.88 | 1.78 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 4.01 | 3.25 | 1.81 | 2.11 | 1.73 | 1.87 | 1.87 | Bet |
 Melbet | 4.01 | 3.25 | 1.81 | 2.11 | 1.73 | 1.87 | 1.87 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Korona Kielce to win partner prices
BC.Game pay the best Polonia Warszawa price at 4.30, 22Bet lead the draw at 3.44 and 1xBet have Korona Kielce longest at 2.03.
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 98.4%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 2.11 (22Bet) and under 2.5 1.73 (22Bet); both teams to score yes pays 1.93 (22Bet) and no 1.90 (1xBet).
The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.
73%
Our prediction
Korona Kielce or draw
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
55% chance1.73
BTTSBoth teams to score
52% chance1.93
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
71% chance1.41fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
13% chance7.94fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Korona Kielce, full-time Korona Kielce
27% chance3.68fair
First halfFirst-half goal
67% chance1.48fair
Polonia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce prediction
Polonia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce prediction, who wins and at what price
Polonia Warszawa host Korona Kielce on Thursday, 29 October 2026 in the Poland Cup, and the model has Korona Kielce at 45%, the draw at 29% and Polonia Warszawa at 27%: that is the Polonia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce prediction in one line.
The goal expectancy is 2.49 in total, split 1.06 to Polonia Warszawa and 1.43 to Korona Kielce. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 45% and both teams to score 52%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Our main pick is korona Kielce or draw at 73%. At 1.23 with 1xBet the market prices it at 81%, against 73% from the model.
The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.
Form check: Polonia Warszawa have won 4 of their last 5 with 8 scored and 3 conceded, Korona Kielce 2 of 5 scoring 6 and conceding 12.
Under 2.5, both teams to score and the scoreline in Polonia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce
On the goal lines Polonia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce reads 71% for over 1.5, 45% for over 2.5 and 24% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 55%.
The goals pick is under 2.5 goals at 55%, best priced 1.73 at 22Bet.
Both teams to score is 52%: Polonia Warszawa find the net in 65% of simulated matches and Korona Kielce in 76%. Polonia Warszawa keep a clean sheet 24% of the time and Korona Kielce 35%.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Polonia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce: 1-1 (12.6%), 0-1 (11.9%) and 1-2 (9%).
A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Korona Kielce, full-time Korona Kielce leads at 27%. A goal before the break is rated 67%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market for Polonia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce
The grid built from 1.06 and 1.43 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Polonia Warszawa to win27%4.30
Draw29%3.44
Korona Kielce to win45%2.03
Polonia Warszawa, draw no bet38%fair 2.67
Korona Kielce, draw no bet63%fair 1.60
Double chance
Polonia Warszawa or draw56%1.90
Korona Kielce or draw73%1.23
Polonia Warszawa or Korona Kielce (no draw)71%1.28
Goals
Over 0.5 goals92%fair 1.09
Over 1.5 goals71%fair 1.41
Over 2.5 goals45%2.11
Over 3.5 goals24%fair 4.17
Over 4.5 goals11%fair 9.35
Under 1.5 goals29%fair 3.46
Under 2.5 goals55%1.73
Under 3.5 goals76%fair 1.32
BTTS
Both teams to score52%1.93
Not both teams to score48%1.90
Halves
First-half goal67%fair 1.48
Over 1.5 first-half goals31%fair 3.25
Second-half goal75%fair 1.34
Team goals
Polonia Warszawa to score65%fair 1.53
Korona Kielce to score76%fair 1.31
Polonia Warszawa clean sheet24%fair 4.18
Korona Kielce clean sheet35%fair 2.89
Polonia Warszawa to win to nil22%fair 4.55
Korona Kielce to win to nil32%fair 3.13
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99
Most likely scores
1-112.6%
0-111.9%
1-29%
1-08.8%
0-28.5%
0-08.3%
Half-time / full-time
Korona Kielce / Korona Kielce27.2%
Draw / Draw16.7%
Draw / Korona Kielce16%
Polonia Warszawa / Polonia Warszawa15.7%
Draw / Polonia Warszawa10.7%
Questions about Polonia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce
Who is favourite in Polonia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce?
The model gives Korona Kielce the best chance at 45%, with the draw at 29%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.
What is the correct score prediction for Polonia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 12.6%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 45%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Will both teams score in Polonia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce?
The BTTS yes line is rated 52%. Polonia Warszawa find the net in 65% of simulated matches and Korona Kielce in 76%.
When is Polonia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce and where is the result shown?
Polonia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce starts at 16:30 UTC on Thursday, 29 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.