Peru Primera División
FBC MelgarHomeDDWWD
4:2Half-time 1:1
Deportivo GarcilasoAwayWLLWL701812
FBC Melgar winDrawDeportivo Garcilaso win
FBC MelgarHomeDDWWDDeportivo GarcilasoAwayWLLWL- Kick-off Sat 17 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.11 2.28 : 0.83
- Favourite
- 70% FBC Melgar
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 51% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Best odds for FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.36 | 4.80 | 7.37 | 1.58 | 2.27 | 1.81 | 1.90 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
FBC Melgar to win partner prices
1xBet pay the best FBC Melgar price at 1.36, 1xBet lead the draw at 4.80 and 1xBet have Deportivo Garcilaso longest at 7.37.
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 92.7%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 1.58 (1xBet) and under 2.5 2.27 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.81 (1xBet) and no 1.90 (1xBet).
Each row of the table is one bookmaker and the green cell is the top price in that column. A Bet button means a partner link that we count; rows without one are there for comparison.
70%
Our prediction
FBC Melgar to win
Double chanceFBC Melgar or draw
88% chance1.06
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
60% chance1.58
BTTSBoth teams to score
51% chance1.81
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
82% chance1.22fair
ScorelineCorrect score 2-0
12% chance8.62fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time FBC Melgar, full-time FBC Melgar
47% chance2.12fair
FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso prediction
FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso prediction and best bet
The FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso prediction leans to FBC Melgar: 70% against 12% for Deportivo Garcilaso, with 18% left for the draw, in the Peru Primera División on Saturday, 17 October 2026.
Expected goals are 2.28 for FBC Melgar and 0.83 for Deportivo Garcilaso, a total of 3.11, which puts over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams to score at 51%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Our main pick is fBC Melgar to win at 70%. At 1.36 with 1xBet the market prices it at 74%, against 70% from the model.
At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso.
For a safer line, fBC Melgar or draw covers 88% of outcomes at 1.06.
With the draw down at 18%, draw no bet costs little insurance and the 12 line keeps most of the win price.
Form check: FBC Melgar have won 2 of their last 5 with 10 scored and 7 conceded, Deportivo Garcilaso 2 of 5 scoring 12 and conceding 9.
FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso goals, both teams to score and half-time forecast
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 82%, over 2.5 at 60%, over 3.5 at 38%; under 2.5 is 40% and under 3.5 is 62%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 60%, best priced 1.58 at 1xBet.
Both teams to score is 51%: FBC Melgar find the net in 90% of simulated matches and Deportivo Garcilaso in 56%. FBC Melgar keep a clean sheet 44% of the time and Deportivo Garcilaso 10%.
Correct score: 2-0 leads at 11.6%, then 1-0 at 10.2% and 2-1 at 9.6%.
With the top scoreline at 11.6%, correct score stays a long-odds market for FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.
Half-time / full-time: half-time FBC Melgar, full-time FBC Melgar is the top combination at 47%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 75%.
All markets, FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso
The grid built from 2.28 and 0.83 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
FBC Melgar to win70%1.36
Draw18%4.80
Deportivo Garcilaso to win12%7.37
FBC Melgar, draw no bet85%fair 1.17
Deportivo Garcilaso, draw no bet15%fair 6.85
Double chance
FBC Melgar or draw88%1.06
Deportivo Garcilaso or draw30%2.91
FBC Melgar or Deportivo Garcilaso (no draw)82%1.15
Goals
Over 0.5 goals96%fair 1.05
Over 1.5 goals82%fair 1.22
Over 2.5 goals60%1.58
Over 3.5 goals38%fair 2.65
Over 4.5 goals20%fair 4.93
Under 1.5 goals18%fair 5.46
Under 2.5 goals40%2.27
Under 3.5 goals62%fair 1.61
BTTS
Both teams to score51%1.81
Not both teams to score49%1.90
Halves
First-half goal75%fair 1.33
Over 1.5 first-half goals41%fair 2.45
Second-half goal82%fair 1.22
Team goals
FBC Melgar to score90%fair 1.11
Deportivo Garcilaso to score56%fair 1.77
FBC Melgar clean sheet44%fair 2.29
Deportivo Garcilaso clean sheet10%fair 9.80
FBC Melgar to win to nil40%fair 2.49
Deportivo Garcilaso to win to nil9%fair 10.64
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
2-011.6%
1-010.2%
2-19.6%
3-08.8%
1-18.4%
3-17.3%
Half-time / full-time
FBC Melgar / FBC Melgar47.1%
Draw / FBC Melgar19.8%
Draw / Draw10.5%
Deportivo Garcilaso / Deportivo Garcilaso6.5%
Draw / Deportivo Garcilaso4.7%
Questions about FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso
FBC Melgar or Deportivo Garcilaso: which side does the model back?
The model gives FBC Melgar the best chance at 70%, with the draw at 18%. A chance above 50% means the win is more likely than the other two results combined.
What scoreline is most likely in FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
2-0 is the most likely scoreline at 11.6%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 60% backs the same picture with less variance.
FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 51%. FBC Melgar find the net in 90% of simulated matches and Deportivo Garcilaso in 56%.
When is FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso and where is the result shown?
FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso starts at 23:00 UTC on Saturday, 17 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.