Al-Karma vs Naft Maysan prediction

Our Al-Karma vs Naft Maysan prediction and pick

Al-Karma vs Naft Maysan prediction for the Iraqi League on Friday, 6 November 2026: the model makes Al-Karma the clear favourite at 68%, with the draw at 22% and Naft Maysan at 11%.

Expected goals are 1.80 for Al-Karma and 0.56 for Naft Maysan, a total of 2.36, which puts over 2.5 goals at 42% and both teams to score at 36%.

Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.

The pick for Al-Karma vs Naft Maysan is al-Karma to win, a 68% chance. No bookmaker has priced it yet, so the fair price from the model is shown instead.

For a safer line, al-Karma or draw covers 89% of outcomes.

With the draw down at 22%, draw no bet costs little insurance and the 12 line keeps most of the win price.

Form check: Al-Karma have won 3 of their last 5 with 6 scored and 4 conceded, Naft Maysan 0 of 4 scoring 1 and conceding 4.

A low-scoring Al-Karma vs Naft Maysan? Under 2.5, BTTS and scoreline

On the goal lines Al-Karma vs Naft Maysan reads 68% for over 1.5, 42% for over 2.5 and 21% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 58%.

The goals pick is under 2.5 goals at 58%.

BTTS yes stands at 36%. Al-Karma score in 84% of simulations against a 17% clean sheet for Naft Maysan; Naft Maysan score in 43% while Al-Karma shut them out 57% of the time.

Not both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 64%.

Correct score: 1-0 leads at 17%, then 2-0 at 15.3% and 1-1 at 9.5%.

In the half-time / full-time market half-time Al-Karma, full-time Al-Karma leads at 43%. A goal before the break is rated 65%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.