Diyala vs Al Minaa Basra prediction

Diyala vs Al Minaa Basra prediction, who wins and at what price

Diyala host Al Minaa Basra on Thursday, 5 November 2026 in the Iraqi League, and the model has Diyala at 47%, the draw at 27% and Al Minaa Basra at 27%: that is the Diyala vs Al Minaa Basra prediction in one line.

Expected goals are 1.44 for Diyala and 1.01 for Al Minaa Basra, a total of 2.45, which puts over 2.5 goals at 44% and both teams to score at 48%.

Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.

Our main pick is diyala or draw at 74%. Bookmakers have not opened this line yet; the page shows the fair price until they do.

Over the last 4 matches Diyala stand at 1 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats; Al Minaa Basra show 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats in 5.

Under 2.5, both teams to score and the scoreline in Diyala vs Al Minaa Basra

On the goal lines Diyala vs Al Minaa Basra reads 70% for over 1.5, 44% for over 2.5 and 23% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 56%.

The goals pick is under 2.5 goals at 56%.

The chance of both teams scoring is 48%, built from Diyala scoring in 76% of runs and Al Minaa Basra in 64%; clean sheets come at 36% for Diyala and 24% for Al Minaa Basra.

The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12.6%, followed by 1-0 (12.4%) and 2-1 (9%).

A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.

Half-time / full-time: half-time Diyala, full-time Diyala is the top combination at 28%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 67%.