Iraqi League
Al Minaa BasraHomeDWLWD
2:1Half-time 0:0
Al-KarmaAwayWWDLW212752
Al Minaa Basra winDrawAl-Karma win
Al Minaa BasraHomeDWLWDAl-KarmaAwayWWDLW- Kick-off Sat 24 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.35 0.86 : 1.49
- Favourite
- 52% Al-Karma
- Over 2.5 goals
- 41% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 46% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Al Minaa Basra vs Al-Karma betting odds by bookmaker
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 4.37 | 3.25 | 1.75 | 2.15 | 1.60 | 1.97 | 1.72 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Al-Karma to win partner prices
The top 1X2 prices for Al Minaa Basra vs Al-Karma are 4.37 for Al Minaa Basra at 1xBet, 3.25 for the draw at 1xBet and 1.75 for Al-Karma at 1xBet.
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 90.3%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 2.15 (1xBet) and under 2.5 1.60 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.97 (1xBet) and no 1.72 (1xBet).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
52%
Our prediction
Al-Karma to win
Double chanceAl-Karma or draw
79% chance1.14
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
59% chance1.60
BTTSNot both teams to score
54% chance1.72
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
68% chance1.47fair
ScorelineCorrect score 0-1
14% chance7.04fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Al-Karma, full-time Al-Karma
32% chance3.16fair
Al Minaa Basra vs Al-Karma prediction
Al Minaa Basra vs Al-Karma prediction, who wins and at what price
Al Minaa Basra vs Al-Karma prediction for the Iraqi League on Saturday, 24 October 2026: the model makes Al-Karma a narrow favourite at 52%, with the draw at 27% and Al Minaa Basra at 21%.
Expected goals are 0.86 for Al Minaa Basra and 1.49 for Al-Karma, a total of 2.35, which puts over 2.5 goals at 41% and both teams to score at 46%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
The pick for Al Minaa Basra vs Al-Karma is al-Karma to win, a 52% chance. 1xBet offer the top price at 1.75. That price implies 57%, 5 points over the model figure.
At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on Al Minaa Basra vs Al-Karma.
Al-Karma or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 79% chance, priced 1.14.
Al Minaa Basra average 1.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded across their last 5, Al-Karma 1.2 and 0.8 across 5.
Under 2.5, both teams to score and the scoreline in Al Minaa Basra vs Al-Karma
On the goal lines Al Minaa Basra vs Al-Karma reads 68% for over 1.5, 41% for over 2.5 and 21% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 59%.
Under 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 59%; 1xBet pay 1.60.
The chance of both teams scoring is 46%, built from Al Minaa Basra scoring in 58% of runs and Al-Karma in 78%; clean sheets come at 23% for Al Minaa Basra and 42% for Al-Karma.
The most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 14.2%, followed by 1-1 (12.2%) and 0-2 (10.6%).
Even the leading scoreline holds only 14.2% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Al-Karma, full-time Al-Karma leads at 32%. A goal before the break is rated 65%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
All markets, Al Minaa Basra vs Al-Karma
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 21% / 27% / 52% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
Al Minaa Basra to win21%4.37
Draw27%3.25
Al-Karma to win52%1.75
Al Minaa Basra, draw no bet29%fair 3.46
Al-Karma, draw no bet71%fair 1.41
Double chance
Al Minaa Basra or draw48%1.86
Al-Karma or draw79%1.14
Al Minaa Basra or Al-Karma (no draw)73%1.25
Goals
Over 0.5 goals91%fair 1.10
Over 1.5 goals68%fair 1.47
Over 2.5 goals41%2.15
Over 3.5 goals21%fair 4.74
Over 4.5 goals9%fair 11.11
Under 1.5 goals32%fair 3.13
Under 2.5 goals59%1.60
Under 3.5 goals79%fair 1.27
BTTS
Both teams to score46%1.97
Not both teams to score54%1.72
Halves
First-half goal65%fair 1.53
Over 1.5 first-half goals29%fair 3.51
Second-half goal73%fair 1.38
Team goals
Al Minaa Basra to score58%fair 1.73
Al-Karma to score78%fair 1.29
Al Minaa Basra clean sheet23%fair 4.44
Al-Karma clean sheet42%fair 2.36
Al Minaa Basra to win to nil19%fair 5.15
Al-Karma to win to nil39%fair 2.57
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.02
Even number of goals51%fair 1.98
Most likely scores
0-114.2%
1-112.2%
0-210.6%
0-09.5%
1-29.1%
1-08.2%
Half-time / full-time
Al-Karma / Al-Karma31.6%
Draw / Al-Karma18.2%
Draw / Draw17.4%
Al Minaa Basra / Al Minaa Basra11.8%
Draw / Al Minaa Basra8.8%
Questions about Al Minaa Basra vs Al-Karma
Who is favourite in Al Minaa Basra vs Al-Karma?
The model gives Al-Karma the best chance at 52%, with the draw at 27%. A chance above 50% means the win is more likely than the other two results combined.
What scoreline is most likely in Al Minaa Basra vs Al-Karma?
0-1 is the most likely scoreline at 14.2%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 41% backs the same picture with less variance.
Is BTTS likely in Al Minaa Basra vs Al-Karma?
The BTTS yes line is rated 46%. Al Minaa Basra find the net in 58% of simulated matches and Al-Karma in 78%.
When do Al Minaa Basra play Al-Karma?
Al Minaa Basra vs Al-Karma starts at 15:00 UTC on Saturday, 24 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.