Lyon vs Nice prediction

Lyon vs Nice prediction and best bet

Lyon vs Nice prediction for the Ligue 1 on Sunday, 18 October 2026: the model makes Lyon a narrow favourite at 54%, with the draw at 24% and Nice at 22%.

Expected goals are 1.88 for Lyon and 1.13 for Nice, a total of 3.01, which puts over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 58%.

Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.

Lyon to win is the main selection, rated 54%. The best price in our comparison is 1.86 at 1xBet, which implies 54%, so the model sits 1 points above the market.

For a safer line, lyon or draw covers 79% of outcomes at 1.27.

Over the last 5 matches Lyon stand at 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats; Nice show 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeats in 5.

Goals, BTTS and correct score for Lyon vs Nice

Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 80%, over 2.5 at 57%, over 3.5 at 36%; under 2.5 is 43% and under 3.5 is 65%.

The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 57%, best priced 1.75 at 1xBet.

The chance of both teams scoring is 58%, built from Lyon scoring in 85% of runs and Nice in 68%; clean sheets come at 32% for Lyon and 15% for Nice.

Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 58%.

Three scorelines carry the most weight for Lyon vs Nice: 1-1 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.8%) and 1-0 (9.3%).

With the top scoreline at 10.5%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Lyon vs Nice; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.

In the half-time / full-time market half-time Lyon, full-time Lyon leads at 35%. A goal before the break is rated 74%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.