Brazil Serie B
São BernardoHomeLDLWW
3:2Half-time 1:1
Vila NovaAwayDWDLD323137
São Bernardo winDrawVila Nova win
São BernardoHomeLDLWWVila NovaAwayDWDLD- Kick-off Sat 24 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.30 1.11 : 1.19
- Favourite
- 37% Vila Nova
- Over 2.5 goals
- 40% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 48% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
São Bernardo vs Vila Nova odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 2.96 | 2.95 | 2.48 | 2.23 | 1.60 | 1.87 | 1.83 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Vila Nova to win partner prices
1xBet pay the best São Bernardo price at 2.96, 1xBet lead the draw at 2.95 and 1xBet have Vila Nova longest at 2.48.
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 92.6%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 2.23 (1xBet) and under 2.5 1.60 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.87 (1xBet) and no 1.83 (1xBet).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
69%
Our prediction
São Bernardo or Vila Nova (no draw)
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
60% chance1.60
BTTSNot both teams to score
52% chance1.83
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
67% chance1.49fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
13% chance7.58fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Vila Nova, full-time Vila Nova
22% chance4.59fair
First halfFirst-half goal
65% chance1.55fair
São Bernardo vs Vila Nova prediction
São Bernardo vs Vila Nova prediction, who wins and at what price
Nothing separates the sides in the São Bernardo vs Vila Nova prediction for Saturday, 24 October 2026: 32% home, 31% draw and 37% away in the Brazil Serie B. A match this tight rewards the double chance and the goal markets more than a straight pick.
Expected goals are 1.11 for São Bernardo and 1.19 for Vila Nova, a total of 2.30, which puts over 2.5 goals at 40% and both teams to score at 48%.
One score grid produces every chance here: the 1X2 split, the goal lines, BTTS and the scorelines all come from the same pair of expected goals.
The pick for São Bernardo vs Vila Nova is são Bernardo or Vila Nova (no draw), a 69% chance. At 1.35 with 1xBet the market prices it at 74%, against 69% from the model.
At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on São Bernardo vs Vila Nova.
A 31% draw chance is high for this level and argues against backing either side to win outright.
São Bernardo average 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded across their last 5, Vila Nova 1.6 and 1.4 across 5.
Under 2.5, both teams to score and the scoreline in São Bernardo vs Vila Nova
Under 2.5 goals is rated 60% and under 3.5 80%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 67% and over 2.5 at 40%.
Under 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 60%; 1xBet pay 1.60.
BTTS yes stands at 48%. São Bernardo score in 67% of simulations against a 33% clean sheet for Vila Nova; Vila Nova score in 70% while São Bernardo shut them out 30% of the time.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for São Bernardo vs Vila Nova: 1-1 (13.2%), 0-1 (11.9%) and 1-0 (11.1%).
A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Vila Nova, full-time Vila Nova is the top combination at 22%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 65%.
Every market for São Bernardo vs Vila Nova
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for São Bernardo vs Vila Nova, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
São Bernardo to win32%2.96
Draw31%2.95
Vila Nova to win37%2.48
São Bernardo, draw no bet47%fair 2.14
Vila Nova, draw no bet53%fair 1.88
Double chance
São Bernardo or draw63%1.48
Vila Nova or draw68%1.35
São Bernardo or Vila Nova (no draw)69%1.35
Goals
Over 0.5 goals90%fair 1.11
Over 1.5 goals67%fair 1.49
Over 2.5 goals40%2.23
Over 3.5 goals20%fair 4.98
Over 4.5 goals8%fair 11.90
Under 1.5 goals33%fair 3.02
Under 2.5 goals60%1.60
Under 3.5 goals80%fair 1.25
BTTS
Both teams to score48%1.87
Not both teams to score52%1.83
Halves
First-half goal65%fair 1.55
Over 1.5 first-half goals28%fair 3.61
Second-half goal72%fair 1.39
Team goals
São Bernardo to score67%fair 1.49
Vila Nova to score70%fair 1.44
São Bernardo clean sheet30%fair 3.29
Vila Nova clean sheet33%fair 3.03
São Bernardo to win to nil28%fair 3.57
Vila Nova to win to nil30%fair 3.30
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.02
Even number of goals51%fair 1.98
Most likely scores
1-113.2%
0-111.9%
1-011.1%
0-010%
1-27.9%
2-17.3%
Half-time / full-time
Vila Nova / Vila Nova21.8%
São Bernardo / São Bernardo19.3%
Draw / Draw18.6%
Draw / Vila Nova14.2%
Draw / São Bernardo12.9%
Questions about São Bernardo vs Vila Nova
Who will win São Bernardo vs Vila Nova?
The model gives Vila Nova the best chance at 37%, with the draw at 31%. Under 50% the favourite fails to win more often than it wins, which is why the double chance is the safer line here.
What scoreline is most likely in São Bernardo vs Vila Nova?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 13.2%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 40% backs the same picture with less variance.
Will both teams score in São Bernardo vs Vila Nova?
The BTTS yes line is rated 48%. São Bernardo find the net in 67% of simulated matches and Vila Nova in 70%.
When is São Bernardo vs Vila Nova and where is the result shown?
São Bernardo vs Vila Nova starts at 19:30 UTC on Saturday, 24 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.