Copa do Brasil
Atletico-MGHomeWLLLL
Sat 7 Nov
GremioAwayDLWWW512524
Atletico-MG winDrawGremio win
Atletico-MGHomeWLLLLGremioAwayDLWWW- Kick-off Sat 7 Nov
- Expected goals
- 2.72 1.65 : 1.07
- Favourite
- 51% Atletico-MG
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 54% model chance
- Prices compared
- 5 in the odds table
Atletico-MG vs Gremio odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.82 | 3.64 | 4.35 | 2.00 | 1.81 | 1.87 | 1.85 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 1.80 | 3.75 | 4.10 | 1.86 | 1.85 | 1.79 | 1.90 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 1.95 | 3.73 | 3.68 | 1.86 | 1.94 | 1.70 | 2.04 | Bet |
 Melbet | 1.95 | 3.73 | 3.68 | 1.86 | 1.94 | 1.70 | 2.04 | Bet |
 Stake | 1.75 | 3.90 | 4.10 | - | - | - | - | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Atletico-MG to win partner prices
Best 1X2 lines behind the Atletico-MG vs Gremio prediction: Atletico-MG 1.95 (Betwinner), draw 3.90 (Stake), Gremio 4.35 (1xBet).
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 100.1%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 2.00 (1xBet) and under 2.5 1.94 (Betwinner); both teams to score yes pays 1.87 (1xBet) and no 2.04 (Melbet).
Each row of the table is one bookmaker and the green cell is the top price in that column. A Bet button means a partner link that we count; rows without one are there for comparison.
51%
Our prediction
Atletico-MG to win
Double chanceAtletico-MG or draw
76% chance1.28
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
50% chance2.00
BTTSBoth teams to score
54% chance1.87
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
76% chance1.32fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
12% chance8.62fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Atletico-MG, full-time Atletico-MG
31% chance3.19fair
Atletico-MG v Gremio head to head
0Atletico-MG wins
0Draws
1Gremio wins
- 1 Nov 26Gremio2:0Atletico-MG
1 meeting since coverage began, 2 goals in total: Atletico-MG scored 0, Gremio scored 2.
Atletico-MG vs Gremio prediction
Our Atletico-MG vs Gremio prediction and pick
The Atletico-MG vs Gremio prediction leans to Atletico-MG: 51% against 24% for Gremio, with 25% left for the draw, in the Copa do Brasil on Saturday, 7 November 2026.
Expected goals are 1.65 for Atletico-MG and 1.07 for Gremio, a total of 2.72, which puts over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 54%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
Our main pick is atletico-MG to win at 51%. At 1.95 with Betwinner the market prices it at 51%, against 51% from the model.
Atletico-MG or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 76% chance, priced 1.28.
Form check: Atletico-MG have won 1 of their last 5 with 3 scored and 8 conceded, Gremio 3 of 5 scoring 8 and conceding 5.
Atletico-MG vs Gremio goals, both teams to score and half-time forecast
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 76%, over 2.5 at 50%, over 3.5 at 29%; under 2.5 is 50% and under 3.5 is 71%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 50%; 1xBet pay 2.00.
BTTS yes stands at 54%. Atletico-MG score in 81% of simulations against a 19% clean sheet for Gremio; Gremio score in 66% while Atletico-MG shut them out 34% of the time.
Correct score: 1-1 leads at 11.6%, then 1-0 at 10.9% and 2-1 at 9.6%.
Even the leading scoreline holds only 11.6% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Atletico-MG, full-time Atletico-MG is the top combination at 31%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 71%.
Every market for Atletico-MG vs Gremio
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Atletico-MG vs Gremio, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
Atletico-MG to win51%1.95
Draw25%3.90
Gremio to win24%4.35
Atletico-MG, draw no bet68%fair 1.48
Gremio, draw no bet32%fair 3.09
Double chance
Atletico-MG or draw76%1.28
Gremio or draw49%2.00
Atletico-MG or Gremio (no draw)75%1.28
Goals
Over 0.5 goals93%fair 1.07
Over 1.5 goals76%fair 1.32
Over 2.5 goals50%2.00
Over 3.5 goals29%fair 3.45
Over 4.5 goals14%fair 7.14
Under 1.5 goals25%fair 4.08
Under 2.5 goals50%1.94
Under 3.5 goals71%fair 1.41
BTTS
Both teams to score54%1.87
Not both teams to score46%2.04
Halves
First-half goal71%fair 1.42
Over 1.5 first-half goals35%fair 2.89
Second-half goal78%fair 1.29
Team goals
Atletico-MG to score81%fair 1.24
Gremio to score66%fair 1.52
Atletico-MG clean sheet34%fair 2.92
Gremio clean sheet19%fair 5.21
Atletico-MG to win to nil32%fair 3.16
Gremio to win to nil18%fair 5.65
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99
Most likely scores
1-111.6%
1-010.9%
2-19.6%
2-09%
0-17%
0-06.6%
Half-time / full-time
Atletico-MG / Atletico-MG31.3%
Draw / Atletico-MG16.9%
Draw / Draw14.7%
Gremio / Gremio13.8%
Draw / Gremio9.3%
Questions about Atletico-MG vs Gremio
Atletico-MG or Gremio: which side does the model back?
The model gives Atletico-MG the best chance at 51%, with the draw at 25%. A chance above 50% means the win is more likely than the other two results combined.
What scoreline is most likely in Atletico-MG vs Gremio?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 11.6%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 50% backs the same picture with less variance.
Is BTTS likely in Atletico-MG vs Gremio?
The BTTS yes line is rated 54%. Atletico-MG find the net in 81% of simulated matches and Gremio in 66%.
When is Atletico-MG vs Gremio and where is the result shown?
Atletico-MG vs Gremio starts at 21:00 UTC on Saturday, 7 November 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.