Estudiantes L.P. vs San Lorenzo prediction

Estudiantes L.P. vs San Lorenzo prediction, who wins and at what price

Estudiantes L.P. vs San Lorenzo prediction for the Liga Profesional on Sunday, 18 October 2026: the model makes Estudiantes L.P. marginally ahead at 45%, with the draw at 31% and San Lorenzo at 24%.

Expected goals are 1.33 for Estudiantes L.P. and 0.93 for San Lorenzo, a total of 2.26, which puts over 2.5 goals at 39% and both teams to score at 45%.

Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.

The pick for Estudiantes L.P. vs San Lorenzo is estudiantes L.P. or draw, a 76% chance. The best price in our comparison is 1.25 at 1xBet, which implies 80%, so the model sits 4 points below the market.

At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on Estudiantes L.P. vs San Lorenzo.

A 31% draw chance is high for this level and argues against backing either side to win outright.

Estudiantes L.P. average 1.0 goals scored and 1.6 conceded across their last 5, San Lorenzo 1.0 and 1.2 across 5.

Under 2.5, both teams to score and the scoreline in Estudiantes L.P. vs San Lorenzo

Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 66%, over 2.5 at 39%, over 3.5 at 19%; under 2.5 is 61% and under 3.5 is 81%.

Under 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 61%; 1xBet pay 1.56.

BTTS yes stands at 45%. Estudiantes L.P. score in 74% of simulations against a 26% clean sheet for San Lorenzo; San Lorenzo score in 61% while Estudiantes L.P. shut them out 40% of the time.

Correct score: 1-0 leads at 13.9%, then 1-1 at 12.9% and 0-0 at 10.4%.

With the top scoreline at 13.9%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Estudiantes L.P. vs San Lorenzo; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.

In the half-time / full-time market half-time Estudiantes L.P., full-time Estudiantes L.P. leads at 27%. A goal before the break is rated 64%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.