Uruguay Segunda División
La LuzHomeWDWWL
3:0Half-time 2:0
MiramarAwayWDWLD462925
La Luz winDrawMiramar win
La LuzHomeWDWWLMiramarAwayWDWLD- Kick-off Sun 25 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.28 1.34 : 0.94
- Favourite
- 46% La Luz
- Over 2.5 goals
- 39% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 46% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
La Luz vs Miramar odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.94 | 3.14 | 3.64 | 2.20 | 1.57 | 1.95 | 1.74 | Bet |
 22Bet | - | - | - | 2.22 | 1.62 | - | - | Bet |
 BC.Game | - | - | - | 2.22 | 1.60 | - | - | Bet |
 Betwinner | - | - | - | 2.20 | 1.57 | - | - | Bet |
 Melbet | - | - | - | 2.22 | 1.62 | - | - | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
La Luz to win partner prices
1xBet pay the best La Luz price at 1.94, 1xBet lead the draw at 3.14 and 1xBet have Miramar longest at 3.64.
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 90.2%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
For the goals, over 2.5 pays 2.22 (BC.Game) and under 2.5 1.62 (Melbet); both teams to score yes pays 1.95 (1xBet) and no 1.74 (1xBet).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
75%
Our prediction
La Luz or draw
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
61% chance1.62
BTTSNot both teams to score
54% chance1.74
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
67% chance1.50fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-0
14% chance7.30fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time La Luz, full-time La Luz
27% chance3.68fair
First halfFirst-half goal
64% chance1.56fair
La Luz vs Miramar prediction
Our La Luz vs Miramar prediction and pick
The La Luz vs Miramar prediction leans to La Luz: 46% against 26% for Miramar, with 29% left for the draw, in the Uruguay Segunda División on Sunday, 25 October 2026.
Expected goals are 1.34 for La Luz and 0.94 for Miramar, a total of 2.28, which puts over 2.5 goals at 39% and both teams to score at 46%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Our main pick is la Luz or draw at 75%. The best price in our comparison is 1.20 at 1xBet, which implies 83%, so the model sits 9 points below the market.
At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on La Luz vs Miramar.
La Luz average 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded across their last 5, Miramar 0.8 and 1.0 across 5.
Under 2.5, both teams to score and the scoreline in La Luz vs Miramar
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 67%, over 2.5 at 39%, over 3.5 at 20%; under 2.5 is 61% and under 3.5 is 80%.
The goals pick is under 2.5 goals at 61%, best priced 1.62 at Melbet.
BTTS yes stands at 46%. La Luz score in 74% of simulations against a 26% clean sheet for Miramar; Miramar score in 61% while La Luz shut them out 39% of the time.
Correct score: 1-0 leads at 13.7%, then 1-1 at 12.9% and 0-0 at 10.2%.
A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.
Half-time / full-time: half-time La Luz, full-time La Luz is the top combination at 27%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 64%.
All markets, La Luz vs Miramar
The grid built from 1.34 and 0.94 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
La Luz to win46%1.94
Draw29%3.14
Miramar to win26%3.64
La Luz, draw no bet64%fair 1.56
Miramar, draw no bet36%fair 2.79
Double chance
La Luz or draw75%1.20
Miramar or draw54%1.69
La Luz or Miramar (no draw)71%1.27
Goals
Over 0.5 goals90%fair 1.11
Over 1.5 goals67%fair 1.50
Over 2.5 goals39%2.22
Over 3.5 goals20%fair 5.08
Over 4.5 goals8%fair 12.35
Under 1.5 goals34%fair 2.99
Under 2.5 goals61%1.62
Under 3.5 goals80%fair 1.25
BTTS
Both teams to score46%1.95
Not both teams to score54%1.74
Halves
First-half goal64%fair 1.56
Over 1.5 first-half goals27%fair 3.65
Second-half goal72%fair 1.40
Team goals
La Luz to score74%fair 1.36
Miramar to score61%fair 1.64
La Luz clean sheet39%fair 2.56
Miramar clean sheet26%fair 3.82
La Luz to win to nil36%fair 2.79
Miramar to win to nil24%fair 4.26
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.02
Even number of goals51%fair 1.98
Most likely scores
1-013.7%
1-112.9%
0-010.2%
0-19.6%
2-09.2%
2-18.6%
Half-time / full-time
La Luz / La Luz27.2%
Draw / Draw18.5%
Draw / La Luz16.7%
Miramar / Miramar14.5%
Draw / Miramar10.4%
Questions about La Luz vs Miramar
Who is favourite in La Luz vs Miramar?
The model gives La Luz the best chance at 46%, with the draw at 29%. Under 50% the favourite fails to win more often than it wins, which is why the double chance is the safer line here.
What is the correct score prediction for La Luz vs Miramar?
1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 13.7%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 39% backs the same picture with less variance.
Will both teams score in La Luz vs Miramar?
The BTTS yes line is rated 46%. La Luz find the net in 74% of simulated matches and Miramar in 61%.
When do La Luz play Miramar?
La Luz vs Miramar starts at 22:00 UTC on Sunday, 25 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.