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Live 11 UTC
Ukraine Cup Round of 16 Wednesday, 28 October 2026 FT
Mayak SarnyHomeL
1:2Half-time 0:1
FC KharkivAwayWWWWW
6985
Mayak Sarny winDrawFC Kharkiv win
Kick-off
Wed 28 Oct
Expected goals
4.07
0.80 : 3.27
Favourite
85%
FC Kharkiv
Over 2.5 goals
73%
model chance
Both teams to score
56%
model chance
Prices compared
5
in the odds table

Best odds for Mayak Sarny vs FC Kharkiv

Bookmaker1X2Over 2.5Under 2.5BTTS yesBTTS no
1xBet11.306.901.191.273.371.732.01Bet
22Bet8.605.971.261.323.071.652.13Bet
BC.Game8.406.401.211.313.201.672.00Bet
Betwinner8.605.971.261.323.071.652.13Bet
Melbet8.605.971.261.323.071.652.13Bet

Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.

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FC Kharkiv to win partner prices

Best 1X2 lines behind the Mayak Sarny vs FC Kharkiv prediction: Mayak Sarny 11.30 (1xBet), draw 6.90 (1xBet), FC Kharkiv 1.26 (22Bet).

The best-price payout across the three results is 97.4%, several points better than any single book offers here.

For the goals, over 2.5 pays 1.32 (Betwinner) and under 2.5 3.37 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.73 (1xBet) and no 2.13 (22Bet).

The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.

85%

Our prediction

FC Kharkiv to win
BankerExpected goals 0.80 : 3.27+7.5% against the best price
Double chanceFC Kharkiv or draw
94% chance1.04
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
73% chance1.32
BTTSBoth teams to score
56% chance1.73
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
91% chance1.10fair
ScorelineCorrect score 0-3
10% chance10.00fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time FC Kharkiv, full-time FC Kharkiv
62% chance1.60fair

Mayak Sarny vs FC Kharkiv prediction

Mayak Sarny vs FC Kharkiv prediction, who wins and at what price

Mayak Sarny vs FC Kharkiv prediction for the Ukraine Cup on Wednesday, 28 October 2026: the model makes FC Kharkiv a strong favourite at 85%, with the draw at 9% and Mayak Sarny at 6%.

Mayak Sarny are expected to score 0.80 and FC Kharkiv 3.27, so the total line is 4.07 goals; over 2.5 lands at 73% and BTTS at 56%.

Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.

FC Kharkiv to win is the main selection, rated 85%. The best price in our comparison is 1.26 at 22Bet, which implies 79%, so the model sits 6 points above the market.

That gap is worth 7.5% on a flat stake, which makes the pick a value bet as well as a probable outcome.

For a safer line, fC Kharkiv or draw covers 94% of outcomes at 1.04.

With the draw down at 9%, draw no bet costs little insurance and the 12 line keeps most of the win price.

Mayak Sarny vs FC Kharkiv over 2.5 goals, BTTS and correct score

Under 2.5 goals is rated 27% and under 3.5 42%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 91% and over 2.5 at 73%.

The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 73%, best priced 1.32 at Betwinner.

The chance of both teams scoring is 56%, built from Mayak Sarny scoring in 55% of runs and FC Kharkiv in 96%; clean sheets come at 4% for Mayak Sarny and 45% for FC Kharkiv.

The most likely scoreline is 0-3 at 10%, followed by 0-2 (9.1%) and 0-4 (8.1%).

With the top scoreline at 10%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Mayak Sarny vs FC Kharkiv; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.

In the half-time / full-time market half-time FC Kharkiv, full-time FC Kharkiv leads at 62%. A goal before the break is rated 84%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.

Every market rated for Mayak Sarny vs FC Kharkiv

Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Mayak Sarny vs FC Kharkiv, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.

Match result

Mayak Sarny to win6%11.30
Draw9%6.90
FC Kharkiv to win85%1.26
Mayak Sarny, draw no bet6%fair 15.63
FC Kharkiv, draw no bet94%fair 1.07

Double chance

Mayak Sarny or draw15%4.28
FC Kharkiv or draw94%1.04
Mayak Sarny or FC Kharkiv (no draw)91%1.10

Goals

Over 0.5 goals98%fair 1.02
Over 1.5 goals91%fair 1.10
Over 2.5 goals73%1.32
Over 3.5 goals58%fair 1.73
Over 4.5 goals38%fair 2.61
Under 1.5 goals9%fair 11.24
Under 2.5 goals27%3.37
Under 3.5 goals42%fair 2.37

BTTS

Both teams to score56%1.73
Not both teams to score44%2.13

Halves

First-half goal84%fair 1.19
Over 1.5 first-half goals55%fair 1.83
Second-half goal89%fair 1.12

Team goals

Mayak Sarny to score55%fair 1.81
FC Kharkiv to score96%fair 1.04
Mayak Sarny clean sheet4%fair 26.32
FC Kharkiv clean sheet45%fair 2.23
Mayak Sarny to win to nil4%fair 28.57
FC Kharkiv to win to nil41%fair 2.42

Odd or even

Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00

Most likely scores

0-310%
0-29.1%
0-48.1%
1-38%
1-27.3%
1-46.5%

Half-time / full-time

FC Kharkiv / FC Kharkiv62.4%
Draw / FC Kharkiv18.1%
Draw / Draw5.4%
Mayak Sarny / FC Kharkiv3.4%
Mayak Sarny / Mayak Sarny3%

Questions about Mayak Sarny vs FC Kharkiv

Who is favourite in Mayak Sarny vs FC Kharkiv?

The model gives FC Kharkiv the best chance at 85%, with the draw at 9%. A chance above 50% means the win is more likely than the other two results combined.

What is the correct score prediction for Mayak Sarny vs FC Kharkiv?

0-3 is the most likely scoreline at 10%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 73% backs the same picture with less variance.

Mayak Sarny vs FC Kharkiv both teams to score: yes or no?

The BTTS yes line is rated 56%. Mayak Sarny find the net in 55% of simulated matches and FC Kharkiv in 96%.

When do Mayak Sarny play FC Kharkiv?

Mayak Sarny vs FC Kharkiv starts at 09:00 UTC on Wednesday, 28 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.

Our pick, Mayak Sarny v FC KharkivFC Kharkiv to win, 85%
1.26Bet