Uganda Premier League
NECHomeDWLWW
Tue 3 Nov
UPDFAwayWLLL572716
NEC winDrawUPDF win
NECHomeDWLWWUPDFAwayWLLL- Kick-off Tue 3 Nov
- Expected goals
- 2.04 1.43 : 0.61
- Favourite
- 57% NEC
- Over 2.5 goals
- 33% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 35% model chance
- Prices compared
- - awaiting lines
NEC vs UPDF betting odds by bookmaker
No bookmaker prices stored for this match yet.
No bookmaker lines are stored for this match yet. Prices appear once the feed carries them, usually within 48 hours of kick-off for the major competitions and the evening before for smaller ones.
57%
Our prediction
NEC to win
1.76fair
Double chanceNEC or draw
84% chance1.19fair
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
67% chance1.50fair
BTTSNot both teams to score
65% chance1.53fair
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
61% chance1.65fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-0
19% chance5.38fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time NEC, full-time NEC
35% chance2.88fair
NEC vs UPDF prediction
NEC vs UPDF prediction and best bet
NEC are a narrow favourite in the NEC vs UPDF prediction, rated 57% to win this Uganda Premier League match on Tuesday, 3 November 2026. UPDF sit at 16% and the draw at 27%.
The goal expectancy is 2.04 in total, split 1.43 to NEC and 0.61 to UPDF. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 33% and both teams to score 35%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Our main pick is nEC to win at 57%. No bookmaker has priced it yet, so the fair price from the model is shown instead.
For a safer line, nEC or draw covers 84% of outcomes.
Over the last 5 matches NEC stand at 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats; UPDF show 1 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in 4.
Under 2.5, both teams to score and the scoreline in NEC vs UPDF
Under 2.5 goals is rated 67% and under 3.5 85%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 61% and over 2.5 at 33%.
The goals pick is under 2.5 goals at 67%.
Both teams to score is 35%: NEC find the net in 76% of simulated matches and UPDF in 46%. NEC keep a clean sheet 54% of the time and UPDF 24%.
Not both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 65%.
Correct score: 1-0 leads at 18.6%, then 2-0 at 13.3% and 0-0 at 13%.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time NEC, full-time NEC leads at 35%. A goal before the break is rated 60%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market rated for NEC vs UPDF
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for NEC vs UPDF, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
NEC to win57%fair 1.76
Draw27%fair 3.69
UPDF to win16%fair 6.25
NEC, draw no bet78%fair 1.28
UPDF, draw no bet22%fair 4.57
Double chance
NEC or draw84%fair 1.19
UPDF or draw43%fair 2.32
NEC or UPDF (no draw)73%fair 1.37
Goals
Over 0.5 goals87%fair 1.15
Over 1.5 goals61%fair 1.65
Over 2.5 goals33%fair 2.99
Over 3.5 goals15%fair 6.67
Over 4.5 goals6%fair 17.86
Under 1.5 goals40%fair 2.53
Under 2.5 goals67%fair 1.50
Under 3.5 goals85%fair 1.18
BTTS
Both teams to score35%fair 2.87
Not both teams to score65%fair 1.53
Halves
First-half goal60%fair 1.66
Over 1.5 first-half goals23%fair 4.27
Second-half goal67%fair 1.48
Team goals
NEC to score76%fair 1.31
UPDF to score46%fair 2.19
NEC clean sheet54%fair 1.84
UPDF clean sheet24%fair 4.18
NEC to win to nil50%fair 2.00
UPDF to win to nil15%fair 6.80
Odd or even
Odd number of goals49%fair 2.03
Even number of goals51%fair 1.97
Most likely scores
1-018.6%
2-013.3%
0-013%
1-111.3%
2-18.1%
0-17.9%
Half-time / full-time
NEC / NEC34.7%
Draw / NEC20.6%
Draw / Draw19.7%
UPDF / UPDF8.3%
Draw / UPDF6.9%
Questions about NEC vs UPDF
NEC or UPDF: which side does the model back?
The model gives NEC the best chance at 57%, with the draw at 27%. That is a majority outcome: the win is likelier than a draw and a defeat put together.
What is the correct score prediction for NEC vs UPDF?
1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 18.6%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 33%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Is BTTS likely in NEC vs UPDF?
The BTTS yes line is rated 35%. NEC find the net in 76% of simulated matches and UPDF in 46%.
When do NEC play UPDF?
NEC vs UPDF starts at 13:00 UTC on Tuesday, 3 November 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.