Covadonga vs Valladolid prediction

Our Covadonga vs Valladolid prediction and pick

Covadonga vs Valladolid prediction for the Copa del Rey on Thursday, 29 October 2026: the model makes Valladolid a strong favourite at 80%, with the draw at 14% and Covadonga at 6%.

Expected goals are 0.67 for Covadonga and 2.73 for Valladolid, a total of 3.40, which puts over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams to score at 46%.

The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.

Our main pick is valladolid to win at 80%. At 1.30 with Betwinner the market prices it at 77%, against 80% from the model.

That gap is worth 4.3% on a flat stake, which makes the pick a value bet as well as a probable outcome.

For a safer line, valladolid or draw covers 94% of outcomes at 1.05.

The draw sits at only 14%, so the 12 double chance and draw no bet keep more of the price than usual.

Goals forecast for Covadonga vs Valladolid with over 2.5, BTTS and scoreline

Under 2.5 goals is rated 35% and under 3.5 56%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 85% and over 2.5 at 65%.

Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 65%; Betwinner pay 1.54.

BTTS yes stands at 46%. Covadonga score in 49% of simulations against a 51% clean sheet for Valladolid; Valladolid score in 94% while Covadonga shut them out 7% of the time.

Correct score: 0-2 leads at 12.4%, then 0-3 at 11.3% and 0-1 at 9.1%.

A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.

Half-time / full-time: half-time Valladolid, full-time Valladolid is the top combination at 57%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 78%.