Segunda Liga
FarenseHomeWWWLD
1:4Half-time 0:3
PenafielAwayWLLW482725
Farense winDrawPenafiel win
FarenseHomeWWWLDPenafielAwayWLLW- Kick-off Sat 24 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.54 1.50 : 1.04
- Favourite
- 48% Farense
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 51% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Farense vs Penafiel odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.95 | 3.28 | 3.82 | 2.05 | 1.71 | 1.84 | 1.86 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Farense to win partner prices
Best 1X2 lines behind the Farense vs Penafiel prediction: Farense 1.95 (1xBet), draw 3.28 (1xBet), Penafiel 3.82 (1xBet).
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 92.6%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
For the goals, over 2.5 pays 2.05 (1xBet) and under 2.5 1.71 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.84 (1xBet) and no 1.86 (1xBet).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
75%
Our prediction
Farense or draw
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
54% chance1.71
BTTSBoth teams to score
51% chance1.84
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
72% chance1.39fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
12% chance8.13fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Farense, full-time Farense
29% chance3.46fair
First halfFirst-half goal
68% chance1.47fair
Farense vs Penafiel prediction
Farense vs Penafiel prediction, who wins and at what price
Farense host Penafiel on Saturday, 24 October 2026 in the Segunda Liga, and the model has Farense at 48%, the draw at 27% and Penafiel at 26%: that is the Farense vs Penafiel prediction in one line.
The goal expectancy is 2.54 in total, split 1.50 to Farense and 1.04 to Penafiel. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 46% and both teams to score 51%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
The pick for Farense vs Penafiel is farense or draw, a 75% chance. The best price in our comparison is 1.22 at 1xBet, which implies 82%, so the model sits 7 points below the market.
The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.
Form check: Farense have won 3 of their last 5 with 11 scored and 6 conceded, Penafiel 2 of 4 scoring 7 and conceding 5.
Farense vs Penafiel goals, both teams to score and half-time forecast
On the goal lines Farense vs Penafiel reads 72% for over 1.5, 46% for over 2.5 and 25% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 54%.
The goals pick is under 2.5 goals at 54%, best priced 1.71 at 1xBet.
BTTS yes stands at 51%. Farense score in 78% of simulations against a 22% clean sheet for Penafiel; Penafiel score in 65% while Farense shut them out 35% of the time.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Farense vs Penafiel: 1-1 (12.3%), 1-0 (11.8%) and 2-1 (9.2%).
With the top scoreline at 12.3%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Farense vs Penafiel; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Farense, full-time Farense leads at 29%. A goal before the break is rated 68%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
All markets, Farense vs Penafiel
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Farense vs Penafiel, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
Farense to win48%1.95
Draw27%3.28
Penafiel to win26%3.82
Farense, draw no bet65%fair 1.54
Penafiel, draw no bet35%fair 2.87
Double chance
Farense or draw75%1.22
Penafiel or draw53%1.76
Farense or Penafiel (no draw)73%1.29
Goals
Over 0.5 goals92%fair 1.09
Over 1.5 goals72%fair 1.39
Over 2.5 goals46%2.05
Over 3.5 goals25%fair 3.98
Over 4.5 goals11%fair 8.77
Under 1.5 goals28%fair 3.58
Under 2.5 goals54%1.71
Under 3.5 goals75%fair 1.34
BTTS
Both teams to score51%1.84
Not both teams to score49%1.86
Halves
First-half goal68%fair 1.47
Over 1.5 first-half goals32%fair 3.15
Second-half goal75%fair 1.33
Team goals
Farense to score78%fair 1.29
Penafiel to score65%fair 1.55
Farense clean sheet35%fair 2.83
Penafiel clean sheet22%fair 4.48
Farense to win to nil33%fair 3.08
Penafiel to win to nil21%fair 4.88
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99
Most likely scores
1-112.3%
1-011.8%
2-19.2%
2-08.9%
0-18.2%
0-07.9%
Half-time / full-time
Farense / Farense28.9%
Draw / Farense16.5%
Draw / Draw16.2%
Penafiel / Penafiel14.7%
Draw / Penafiel10%
Questions about Farense vs Penafiel
Farense or Penafiel: which side does the model back?
The model gives Farense the best chance at 48%, with the draw at 27%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.
Farense vs Penafiel correct score: what does the model say?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 12.3%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 46%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Will both teams score in Farense vs Penafiel?
The BTTS yes line is rated 51%. Farense find the net in 78% of simulated matches and Penafiel in 65%.
When do Farense play Penafiel?
Kick-off is 17:00 UTC on Saturday, 24 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.