Segunda Liga
ChavesHomeLDWWL
2:1Half-time 0:1
VizelaAwayWLLLW352936
Chaves winDrawVizela win
ChavesHomeLDWWLVizelaAwayWLLLW- Kick-off Fri 23 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.56 1.27 : 1.29
- Favourite
- 36% Vizela
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 53% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Best odds for Chaves vs Vizela
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 2.62 | 3.20 | 2.55 | 1.91 | 1.82 | 1.70 | 2.04 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Vizela to win partner prices
Best 1X2 lines behind the Chaves vs Vizela prediction: Chaves 2.62 (1xBet), draw 3.20 (1xBet), Vizela 2.55 (1xBet).
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 92.1%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
For the goals, over 2.5 pays 1.91 (1xBet) and under 2.5 1.82 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.70 (1xBet) and no 2.04 (1xBet).
Each row of the table is one bookmaker and the green cell is the top price in that column. A Bet button means a partner link that we count; rows without one are there for comparison.
71%
Our prediction
Chaves or Vizela (no draw)
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
53% chance1.82
BTTSBoth teams to score
53% chance1.70
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
73% chance1.38fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
13% chance7.87fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Vizela, full-time Vizela
22% chance4.61fair
First halfFirst-half goal
68% chance1.46fair
Chaves vs Vizela prediction
Chaves vs Vizela prediction, who wins and at what price
The Chaves vs Vizela prediction is a coin flip by the numbers. Segunda Liga on Friday, 23 October 2026 gives Chaves a 35% chance, Vizela 36% and the draw 29%, so the value sits in covering two results rather than one.
The goal expectancy is 2.56 in total, split 1.27 to Chaves and 1.29 to Vizela. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 47% and both teams to score 53%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
Chaves or Vizela (no draw) is the main selection, rated 71%. The best price in our comparison is 1.29 at 1xBet, which implies 78%, so the model sits 6 points below the market.
The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.
Chaves average 1.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded across their last 5, Vizela 0.8 and 1.2 across 5.
Goals, BTTS and correct score for Chaves vs Vizela
On the goal lines Chaves vs Vizela reads 73% for over 1.5, 47% for over 2.5 and 26% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 53%.
The goals pick is under 2.5 goals at 53%, best priced 1.82 at 1xBet.
BTTS yes stands at 53%. Chaves score in 72% of simulations against a 28% clean sheet for Vizela; Vizela score in 73% while Chaves shut them out 28% of the time.
Correct score: 1-1 leads at 12.7%, then 0-1 at 10% and 1-0 at 9.8%.
A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Vizela, full-time Vizela is the top combination at 22%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 68%.
All markets, Chaves vs Vizela
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Chaves vs Vizela, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
Chaves to win35%2.62
Draw29%3.20
Vizela to win36%2.55
Chaves, draw no bet49%fair 2.03
Vizela, draw no bet51%fair 1.97
Double chance
Chaves or draw64%1.44
Vizela or draw65%1.42
Chaves or Vizela (no draw)71%1.29
Goals
Over 0.5 goals92%fair 1.08
Over 1.5 goals73%fair 1.38
Over 2.5 goals47%1.91
Over 3.5 goals26%fair 3.92
Over 4.5 goals12%fair 8.55
Under 1.5 goals28%fair 3.64
Under 2.5 goals53%1.82
Under 3.5 goals75%fair 1.34
BTTS
Both teams to score53%1.70
Not both teams to score47%2.04
Halves
First-half goal68%fair 1.46
Over 1.5 first-half goals32%fair 3.13
Second-half goal76%fair 1.32
Team goals
Chaves to score72%fair 1.39
Vizela to score73%fair 1.38
Chaves clean sheet28%fair 3.64
Vizela clean sheet28%fair 3.56
Chaves to win to nil25%fair 3.95
Vizela to win to nil26%fair 3.88
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99
Most likely scores
1-112.7%
0-110%
1-09.8%
1-28.2%
2-18%
0-07.7%
Half-time / full-time
Vizela / Vizela21.7%
Chaves / Chaves21%
Draw / Draw16.4%
Draw / Vizela13.4%
Draw / Chaves13.1%
Questions about Chaves vs Vizela
Who will win Chaves vs Vizela?
The model gives Vizela the best chance at 36%, with the draw at 29%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.
What is the correct score prediction for Chaves vs Vizela?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 12.7%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 47%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Chaves vs Vizela both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 53%. Chaves find the net in 72% of simulated matches and Vizela in 73%.
When is Chaves vs Vizela and where is the result shown?
Chaves vs Vizela starts at 17:45 UTC on Friday, 23 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.