Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso prediction

Our Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso prediction and pick

The Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso prediction leans to Alianza Atletico: 56% against 20% for Deportivo Garcilaso, with 24% left for the draw, in the Peru Primera División on Wednesday, 28 October 2026.

The goal expectancy is 2.97 in total, split 1.90 to Alianza Atletico and 1.07 to Deportivo Garcilaso. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 57% and both teams to score 56%.

Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.

The pick for Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso is alianza Atletico to win, a 56% chance. The best price in our comparison is 1.63 at Melbet, which implies 61%, so the model sits 5 points below the market.

At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso.

For a safer line, alianza Atletico or draw covers 80% of outcomes at 1.15.

Form check: Alianza Atletico have won 3 of their last 5 with 9 scored and 11 conceded, Deportivo Garcilaso 2 of 5 scoring 12 and conceding 9.

Goals, BTTS and correct score for Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso

Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 80%, over 2.5 at 57%, over 3.5 at 35%; under 2.5 is 43% and under 3.5 is 65%.

Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 57%; Melbet pay 1.74.

BTTS yes stands at 56%. Alianza Atletico score in 85% of simulations against a 15% clean sheet for Deportivo Garcilaso; Deportivo Garcilaso score in 66% while Alianza Atletico shut them out 34% of the time.

Correct score: 1-1 leads at 10.4%, then 2-1 at 9.9% and 1-0 at 9.7%.

A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.

In the half-time / full-time market half-time Alianza Atletico, full-time Alianza Atletico leads at 36%. A goal before the break is rated 74%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.