Gharraf vs Naft prediction

Our Gharraf vs Naft prediction and pick

Gharraf host Naft on Thursday, 22 October 2026 in the Iraqi League, and the model has Naft at 41%, the draw at 32% and Gharraf at 27%: that is the Gharraf vs Naft prediction in one line.

Expected goals are 0.87 for Gharraf and 1.12 for Naft, a total of 1.99, which puts over 2.5 goals at 32% and both teams to score at 42%.

Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.

Our main pick is naft or draw at 73%. At 1.25 with 1xBet the market prices it at 80%, against 73% from the model.

The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.

The draw is live at 32%, above the one-in-four baseline, which is why the double chance beats the straight win here.

Form check: Gharraf have won 2 of their last 4 with 4 scored and 2 conceded, Naft 4 of 5 scoring 6 and conceding 0.

A low-scoring Gharraf vs Naft? Under 2.5, BTTS and scoreline

Under 2.5 goals is rated 69% and under 3.5 86%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 59% and over 2.5 at 32%.

The goals pick is under 2.5 goals at 69%, best priced 1.39 at 1xBet.

The chance of both teams scoring is 42%, built from Gharraf scoring in 58% of runs and Naft in 67%; clean sheets come at 33% for Gharraf and 42% for Naft.

Not both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 58%.

Correct score: 0-1 leads at 15.3%, then 0-0 at 13.7% and 1-1 at 13.3%.

Half-time / full-time: half-time Naft, full-time Naft is the top combination at 24%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 59%.