Conference League
Matchday 3 Thursday, 5 November 2026
Kick-off
RigaHomeDWDWD
Thu 5 Nov
FK JablonecAwayLLDWL412831
Riga winDrawFK Jablonec win
Conference League
Matchday 3 Thursday, 5 November 2026
Kick-off
RigaHomeDWDWDFK JablonecAwayLLDWL- Kick-off Thu 5 Nov
- Expected goals
- 2.68 1.44 : 1.24
- Favourite
- 41% Riga
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 55% model chance
- Prices compared
- 6 in the odds table
Riga vs FK Jablonec odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 2.34 | 3.42 | 3.15 | 1.97 | 1.89 | 1.71 | 2.02 | Bet |
 22Bet | 2.30 | 3.36 | 3.10 | 1.94 | 1.86 | 1.71 | 2.02 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 2.30 | 3.35 | 2.94 | 1.86 | 1.85 | 1.66 | 2.04 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 2.30 | 3.36 | 3.10 | 1.94 | 1.86 | 1.71 | 2.02 | Bet |
 Melbet | 2.30 | 3.36 | 3.10 | 1.94 | 1.86 | 1.71 | 2.02 | Bet |
 Stake | 2.25 | 3.40 | 3.05 | 1.84 | 1.86 | 1.70 | 1.99 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Riga to win partner prices
The top 1X2 prices for Riga vs FK Jablonec are 2.34 for Riga at 1xBet, 3.42 for the draw at 1xBet and 3.15 for FK Jablonec at 1xBet.
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 96.4%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 1.97 (1xBet) and under 2.5 1.89 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.71 (22Bet) and no 2.04 (BC.Game).
Each row of the table is one bookmaker and the green cell is the top price in that column. A Bet button means a partner link that we count; rows without one are there for comparison.
72%
Our prediction
Riga or FK Jablonec (no draw)
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
50% chance1.97
BTTSBoth teams to score
55% chance1.71
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
75% chance1.34fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
12% chance8.20fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Riga, full-time Riga
25% chance4.03fair
First halfFirst-half goal
70% chance1.43fair
Riga vs FK Jablonec prediction
Riga vs FK Jablonec prediction, who wins and at what price
Riga vs FK Jablonec prediction for the Conference League on Thursday, 5 November 2026: the model makes Riga marginally ahead at 41%, with the draw at 28% and FK Jablonec at 32%.
The goal expectancy is 2.68 in total, split 1.44 to Riga and 1.24 to FK Jablonec. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 50% and both teams to score 55%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Our main pick is riga or FK Jablonec (no draw) at 72%. At 1.34 with 1xBet the market prices it at 75%, against 72% from the model.
At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on Riga vs FK Jablonec.
Riga average 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded across their last 5, FK Jablonec 1.2 and 2.4 across 5.
How many goals in Riga vs FK Jablonec? Lines, BTTS and scorelines
On the goal lines Riga vs FK Jablonec reads 75% for over 1.5, 50% for over 2.5 and 28% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 50%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 50%; 1xBet pay 1.97.
The chance of both teams scoring is 55%, built from Riga scoring in 76% of runs and FK Jablonec in 71%; clean sheets come at 29% for Riga and 24% for FK Jablonec.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Riga vs FK Jablonec: 1-1 (12.2%), 1-0 (9.9%) and 2-1 (8.8%).
Even the leading scoreline holds only 12.2% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Riga, full-time Riga leads at 25%. A goal before the break is rated 70%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market for Riga vs FK Jablonec
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Riga vs FK Jablonec, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
Riga to win41%2.34
Draw28%3.42
FK Jablonec to win32%3.15
Riga, draw no bet56%fair 1.77
FK Jablonec, draw no bet44%fair 2.29
Double chance
Riga or draw69%1.39
FK Jablonec or draw59%1.64
Riga or FK Jablonec (no draw)72%1.34
Goals
Over 0.5 goals93%fair 1.07
Over 1.5 goals75%fair 1.34
Over 2.5 goals50%1.97
Over 3.5 goals28%fair 3.56
Over 4.5 goals13%fair 7.46
Under 1.5 goals25%fair 3.97
Under 2.5 goals50%1.89
Under 3.5 goals72%fair 1.39
BTTS
Both teams to score55%1.71
Not both teams to score45%2.04
Halves
First-half goal70%fair 1.43
Over 1.5 first-half goals34%fair 2.94
Second-half goal77%fair 1.30
Team goals
Riga to score76%fair 1.31
FK Jablonec to score71%fair 1.41
Riga clean sheet29%fair 3.46
FK Jablonec clean sheet24%fair 4.22
Riga to win to nil27%fair 3.76
FK Jablonec to win to nil22%fair 4.59
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99
Most likely scores
1-112.2%
1-09.9%
2-18.8%
0-18.5%
1-27.6%
2-07.1%
Half-time / full-time
Riga / Riga24.8%
FK Jablonec / FK Jablonec18.7%
Draw / Draw15.5%
Draw / Riga14.5%
Draw / FK Jablonec11.8%
Questions about Riga vs FK Jablonec
Who will win Riga vs FK Jablonec?
The model gives Riga the best chance at 41%, with the draw at 28%. Under 50% the favourite fails to win more often than it wins, which is why the double chance is the safer line here.
What is the correct score prediction for Riga vs FK Jablonec?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 12.2%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 50% backs the same picture with less variance.
Will both teams score in Riga vs FK Jablonec?
The BTTS yes line is rated 55%. Riga find the net in 76% of simulated matches and FK Jablonec in 71%.
When is Riga vs FK Jablonec and where is the result shown?
Riga vs FK Jablonec starts at 20:00 UTC on Thursday, 5 November 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.