Conference League
Matchday 2 Thursday, 22 October 2026
FT
PafosHomeLDDDD
1:1Half-time 0:0
RigaAwayDWDWD612316
Pafos winDrawRiga win
Conference League
Matchday 2 Thursday, 22 October 2026
FT
PafosHomeLDDDDRigaAwayDWDWD- Kick-off Thu 22 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.92 1.97 : 0.95
- Favourite
- 61% Pafos
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 54% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Best odds for Pafos vs Riga
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.62 | 4.20 | 5.54 | 1.77 | 2.13 | 1.74 | 1.98 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Pafos to win partner prices
Best 1X2 lines behind the Pafos vs Riga prediction: Pafos 1.62 (1xBet), draw 4.20 (1xBet), Riga 5.54 (1xBet).
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 96.5%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
For the goals, over 2.5 pays 1.77 (1xBet) and under 2.5 2.13 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.74 (1xBet) and no 1.98 (1xBet).
Each row of the table is one bookmaker and the green cell is the top price in that column. A Bet button means a partner link that we count; rows without one are there for comparison.
61%
Our prediction
Pafos to win
Double chancePafos or draw
83% chance1.17
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
55% chance1.77
BTTSBoth teams to score
54% chance1.74
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
79% chance1.27fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-0
11% chance9.43fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Pafos, full-time Pafos
39% chance2.54fair
Pafos vs Riga prediction
Our Pafos vs Riga prediction and pick
The Pafos vs Riga prediction leans to Pafos: 61% against 17% for Riga, with 23% left for the draw, in the Conference League on Thursday, 22 October 2026.
Pafos are expected to score 1.97 and Riga 0.95, so the total line is 2.92 goals; over 2.5 lands at 55% and BTTS at 54%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
Our main pick is pafos to win at 61%. The best price in our comparison is 1.62 at 1xBet, which implies 62%, so the model sits 1 points below the market.
For a safer line, pafos or draw covers 83% of outcomes at 1.17.
Pafos average 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded across their last 5, Riga 1.8 and 1.0 across 5.
Goals, BTTS and correct score for Pafos vs Riga
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 79%, over 2.5 at 55%, over 3.5 at 34%; under 2.5 is 45% and under 3.5 is 67%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 55%; 1xBet pay 1.77.
BTTS yes stands at 54%. Pafos score in 86% of simulations against a 14% clean sheet for Riga; Riga score in 61% while Pafos shut them out 39% of the time.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Pafos vs Riga: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (10.5%) and 1-1 (10.1%).
With the top scoreline at 10.6%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Pafos vs Riga; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Pafos, full-time Pafos leads at 39%. A goal before the break is rated 73%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
All markets, Pafos vs Riga
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Pafos vs Riga, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
Pafos to win61%1.62
Draw23%4.20
Riga to win17%5.54
Pafos, draw no bet79%fair 1.27
Riga, draw no bet21%fair 4.67
Double chance
Pafos or draw83%1.17
Riga or draw39%2.39
Pafos or Riga (no draw)78%1.25
Goals
Over 0.5 goals95%fair 1.06
Over 1.5 goals79%fair 1.27
Over 2.5 goals55%1.77
Over 3.5 goals34%fair 2.99
Over 4.5 goals17%fair 5.85
Under 1.5 goals21%fair 4.74
Under 2.5 goals45%2.13
Under 3.5 goals67%fair 1.50
BTTS
Both teams to score54%1.74
Not both teams to score46%1.98
Halves
First-half goal73%fair 1.37
Over 1.5 first-half goals38%fair 2.65
Second-half goal80%fair 1.25
Team goals
Pafos to score86%fair 1.16
Riga to score61%fair 1.63
Pafos clean sheet39%fair 2.58
Riga clean sheet14%fair 7.19
Pafos to win to nil36%fair 2.81
Riga to win to nil13%fair 7.81
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
1-010.6%
2-010.5%
1-110.1%
2-19.9%
3-06.9%
3-16.5%
Half-time / full-time
Pafos / Pafos39.4%
Draw / Pafos18.7%
Draw / Draw12.6%
Riga / Riga9.6%
Draw / Riga6.7%
Questions about Pafos vs Riga
Who is favourite in Pafos vs Riga?
The model gives Pafos the best chance at 61%, with the draw at 23%. A chance above 50% means the win is more likely than the other two results combined.
What is the correct score prediction for Pafos vs Riga?
1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 10.6%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 55% backs the same picture with less variance.
Pafos vs Riga both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 54%. Pafos find the net in 86% of simulated matches and Riga in 61%.
When is Pafos vs Riga and where is the result shown?
Pafos vs Riga starts at 16:45 UTC on Thursday, 22 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.