Carlisle vs Harrogate Town prediction

Our Carlisle vs Harrogate Town prediction and pick

Carlisle host Harrogate Town on Wednesday, 28 October 2026 in the National League, and the model has Carlisle at 46%, the draw at 25% and Harrogate Town at 30%: that is the Carlisle vs Harrogate Town prediction in one line.

Carlisle are expected to score 1.77 and Harrogate Town 1.39, so the total line is 3.16 goals; over 2.5 lands at 61% and BTTS at 64%.

The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.

Carlisle or Harrogate Town (no draw) is the main selection, rated 75%. Betwinner offer the top price at 1.25. That price implies 80%, 5 points over the model figure.

The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.

Carlisle average 2.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded across their last 5, Harrogate Town 1.8 and 1.6 across 5.

Carlisle vs Harrogate Town over 2.5 goals, BTTS and correct score

On the goal lines Carlisle vs Harrogate Town reads 82% for over 1.5, 61% for over 2.5 and 39% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 39%.

Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 61%; Melbet pay 1.60.

Both teams to score is 64%: Carlisle find the net in 83% of simulated matches and Harrogate Town in 75%. Carlisle keep a clean sheet 25% of the time and Harrogate Town 17%.

Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 64%.

Correct score: 1-1 leads at 10.4%, then 2-1 at 9.2% and 1-0 at 7.5%.

With the top scoreline at 10.4%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Carlisle vs Harrogate Town; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.

Half-time / full-time: half-time Carlisle, full-time Carlisle is the top combination at 29%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 76%.