Harrogate Town vs Bury prediction

Harrogate Town vs Bury prediction, who wins and at what price

Harrogate Town vs Bury prediction for the FA Cup on Tuesday, 20 October 2026: the model makes Harrogate Town a narrow favourite at 56%, with the draw at 21% and Bury at 23%.

Expected goals are 1.88 for Harrogate Town and 1.14 for Bury, a total of 3.02, which puts over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 58%.

The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.

Harrogate Town to win is the main selection, rated 56%. The best price in our comparison is 1.67 at 1xBet, which implies 60%, so the model sits 4 points below the market.

At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on Harrogate Town vs Bury.

For a safer line, harrogate Town or Bury (no draw) covers 79% of outcomes at 1.17.

The draw sits at only 21%, so the 12 double chance and draw no bet keep more of the price than usual.

Form check: Harrogate Town have won 2 of their last 5 with 9 scored and 8 conceded, Bury 2 of 5 scoring 10 and conceding 8.

Goals, BTTS and correct score for Harrogate Town vs Bury

On the goal lines Harrogate Town vs Bury reads 80% for over 1.5, 57% for over 2.5 and 36% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 43%.

Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 57%; 1xBet pay 1.50.

Both teams to score is 58%: Harrogate Town find the net in 85% of simulated matches and Bury in 68%. Harrogate Town keep a clean sheet 32% of the time and Bury 15%.

Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 58%.

The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10.5%, followed by 2-1 (9.8%) and 1-0 (9.2%).

Even the leading scoreline holds only 10.5% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.

Half-time / full-time: half-time Harrogate Town, full-time Harrogate Town is the top combination at 35%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 74%.