FA Cup
CarlisleHomeDWWWW
2:1Half-time 2:0
TamworthAwayWLLWL642115
Carlisle winDrawTamworth win
CarlisleHomeDWWWWTamworthAwayWLLWL- Kick-off Sat 17 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.37 2.30 : 1.07
- Favourite
- 64% Carlisle
- Over 2.5 goals
- 65% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 61% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Best odds for Carlisle vs Tamworth
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.48 | 4.05 | 5.47 | 1.44 | 2.42 | 1.55 | 2.27 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Carlisle to win partner prices
1xBet pay the best Carlisle price at 1.48, 1xBet lead the draw at 4.05 and 1xBet have Tamworth longest at 5.47.
The best-price payout across the three results is 90.5%, several points better than any single book offers here.
For the goals, over 2.5 pays 1.44 (1xBet) and under 2.5 2.42 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.55 (1xBet) and no 2.27 (1xBet).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
64%
Our prediction
Carlisle to win
Double chanceCarlisle or draw
85% chance1.08
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
65% chance1.44
BTTSBoth teams to score
61% chance1.55
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
85% chance1.18fair
ScorelineCorrect score 2-1
10% chance10.31fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Carlisle, full-time Carlisle
43% chance2.32fair
Carlisle vs Tamworth odds movement
Carlisle win1.48-0.05
Draw4.05unchanged
Tamworth win5.47unchanged
Over 2.5 goals1.44-0.06
Under 2.5 goals2.42-0.08
Best price in the comparison at each refresh since the match was first priced on 1 Nov, 12:14 UTC. A shortening price means money has come for that outcome.
Carlisle vs Tamworth prediction
Carlisle vs Tamworth prediction, who wins and at what price
Carlisle host Tamworth on Saturday, 17 October 2026 in the FA Cup, and the model has Carlisle at 64%, the draw at 21% and Tamworth at 15%: that is the Carlisle vs Tamworth prediction in one line.
Carlisle are expected to score 2.30 and Tamworth 1.07, so the total line is 3.37 goals; over 2.5 lands at 65% and BTTS at 61%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Carlisle to win is the main selection, rated 64%. At 1.48 with 1xBet the market prices it at 68%, against 64% from the model.
The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.
Carlisle or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 85% chance, priced 1.08.
The draw sits at only 21%, so the 12 double chance and draw no bet keep more of the price than usual.
Carlisle average 2.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded across their last 5, Tamworth 1.4 and 1.2 across 5.
Goals forecast for Carlisle vs Tamworth with over 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
On the goal lines Carlisle vs Tamworth reads 85% for over 1.5, 65% for over 2.5 and 44% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 35%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 65%; 1xBet pay 1.44.
BTTS yes stands at 61%. Carlisle score in 90% of simulations against a 10% clean sheet for Tamworth; Tamworth score in 66% while Carlisle shut them out 34% of the time.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 61%.
Correct score: 2-1 leads at 9.7%, then 2-0 at 9.1% and 1-1 at 8.5%.
Even the leading scoreline holds only 9.7% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Carlisle, full-time Carlisle leads at 43%. A goal before the break is rated 78%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market for Carlisle vs Tamworth
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 64% / 21% / 15% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
Carlisle to win64%1.48
Draw21%4.05
Tamworth to win15%5.47
Carlisle, draw no bet81%fair 1.23
Tamworth, draw no bet19%fair 5.26
Double chance
Carlisle or draw85%1.08
Tamworth or draw36%2.33
Carlisle or Tamworth (no draw)79%1.16
Goals
Over 0.5 goals97%fair 1.04
Over 1.5 goals85%fair 1.18
Over 2.5 goals65%1.44
Over 3.5 goals44%fair 2.30
Over 4.5 goals25%fair 4.00
Under 1.5 goals15%fair 6.67
Under 2.5 goals35%2.42
Under 3.5 goals57%fair 1.77
BTTS
Both teams to score61%1.55
Not both teams to score40%2.27
Halves
First-half goal78%fair 1.28
Over 1.5 first-half goals45%fair 2.23
Second-half goal84%fair 1.19
Team goals
Carlisle to score90%fair 1.11
Tamworth to score66%fair 1.52
Carlisle clean sheet34%fair 2.92
Tamworth clean sheet10%fair 10.00
Carlisle to win to nil32%fair 3.16
Tamworth to win to nil9%fair 10.87
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
2-19.7%
2-09.1%
1-18.5%
1-07.9%
3-17.5%
3-07%
Half-time / full-time
Carlisle / Carlisle43.1%
Draw / Carlisle18.2%
Draw / Draw10.2%
Tamworth / Tamworth9%
Draw / Tamworth5.9%
Questions about Carlisle vs Tamworth
Who is favourite in Carlisle vs Tamworth?
The model gives Carlisle the best chance at 64%, with the draw at 21%. That is a majority outcome: the win is likelier than a draw and a defeat put together.
What is the correct score prediction for Carlisle vs Tamworth?
2-1 is the most likely scoreline at 9.7%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 65%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Will both teams score in Carlisle vs Tamworth?
The BTTS yes line is rated 61%. Carlisle find the net in 90% of simulated matches and Tamworth in 66%.
When is Carlisle vs Tamworth and where is the result shown?
Kick-off is 14:00 UTC on Saturday, 17 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.