FA Cup
BuryHomeDWDLW
1:1Half-time 1:1
Harrogate TownAwayDWWLD252352
Bury winDrawHarrogate Town win
BuryHomeDWDLWHarrogate TownAwayDWWLD- Kick-off Sat 17 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.36 1.37 : 1.99
- Favourite
- 51% Harrogate Town
- Over 2.5 goals
- 65% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 66% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Bury vs Harrogate Town odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 3.46 | 3.70 | 1.83 | 1.44 | 2.43 | 1.44 | 2.56 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Harrogate Town to win partner prices
1xBet pay the best Bury price at 3.46, 1xBet lead the draw at 3.70 and 1xBet have Harrogate Town longest at 1.83.
The best-price payout across the three results is 90.4%, several points better than any single book offers here.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 1.44 (1xBet) and under 2.5 2.43 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.44 (1xBet) and no 2.56 (1xBet).
Each row of the table is one bookmaker and the green cell is the top price in that column. A Bet button means a partner link that we count; rows without one are there for comparison.
51%
Our prediction
Harrogate Town to win
Double chanceBury or Harrogate Town (no draw)
77% chance1.20
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
65% chance1.44
BTTSBoth teams to score
66% chance1.44
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
85% chance1.18fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
10% chance10.53fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Harrogate Town, full-time Harrogate Town
33% chance3.05fair
Bury v Harrogate Town head to head
0Bury wins
0Draws
1Harrogate Town wins
- 20 Oct 26Harrogate Town3:1Bury
1 meeting since coverage began, 4 goals in total: Bury scored 1, Harrogate Town scored 3.
Bury vs Harrogate Town odds movement
Bury win3.46-0.14
Draw3.70-0.20
Harrogate Town win1.83-0.02
Over 2.5 goals1.44-0.09
Under 2.5 goals2.43-0.07
Best price in the comparison at each refresh since the match was first priced on 1 Nov, 12:14 UTC. A shortening price means money has come for that outcome.
Bury vs Harrogate Town prediction
Bury vs Harrogate Town prediction, who wins and at what price
Harrogate Town are a narrow favourite in the Bury vs Harrogate Town prediction, rated 51% to win this FA Cup match on Saturday, 17 October 2026. Bury sit at 25% and the draw at 23%.
The goal expectancy is 3.36 in total, split 1.37 to Bury and 1.99 to Harrogate Town. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 65% and both teams to score 66%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Harrogate Town to win is the main selection, rated 51%. The best price in our comparison is 1.83 at 1xBet, which implies 55%, so the model sits 3 points below the market.
The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.
For a safer line, bury or Harrogate Town (no draw) covers 77% of outcomes at 1.20.
Form check: Bury have won 2 of their last 5 with 10 scored and 8 conceded, Harrogate Town 2 of 5 scoring 9 and conceding 8.
Goals forecast for Bury vs Harrogate Town with over 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 85%, over 2.5 at 65%, over 3.5 at 43%; under 2.5 is 35% and under 3.5 is 57%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 65%, best priced 1.44 at 1xBet.
Both teams to score is 66%: Bury find the net in 75% of simulated matches and Harrogate Town in 86%. Bury keep a clean sheet 14% of the time and Harrogate Town 25%.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 66%.
Correct score: 1-1 leads at 9.5%, then 1-2 at 9.4% and 0-1 at 6.9%.
Even the leading scoreline holds only 9.5% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Harrogate Town, full-time Harrogate Town is the top combination at 33%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 78%.
Every market for Bury vs Harrogate Town
The grid built from 1.37 and 1.99 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Bury to win25%3.46
Draw23%3.70
Harrogate Town to win51%1.83
Bury, draw no bet33%fair 3.02
Harrogate Town, draw no bet67%fair 1.49
Double chance
Bury or draw49%1.79
Harrogate Town or draw75%1.22
Bury or Harrogate Town (no draw)77%1.20
Goals
Over 0.5 goals97%fair 1.04
Over 1.5 goals85%fair 1.18
Over 2.5 goals65%1.44
Over 3.5 goals43%fair 2.31
Over 4.5 goals25%fair 4.03
Under 1.5 goals15%fair 6.62
Under 2.5 goals35%2.43
Under 3.5 goals57%fair 1.76
BTTS
Both teams to score66%1.44
Not both teams to score34%2.56
Halves
First-half goal78%fair 1.28
Over 1.5 first-half goals45%fair 2.24
Second-half goal84%fair 1.19
Team goals
Bury to score75%fair 1.34
Harrogate Town to score86%fair 1.16
Bury clean sheet14%fair 7.30
Harrogate Town clean sheet25%fair 3.94
Bury to win to nil13%fair 7.94
Harrogate Town to win to nil23%fair 4.27
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
1-19.5%
1-29.4%
0-16.9%
0-26.9%
2-16.5%
2-26.5%
Half-time / full-time
Harrogate Town / Harrogate Town32.8%
Draw / Harrogate Town15.6%
Bury / Bury15.2%
Draw / Draw11.4%
Draw / Bury9%
Questions about Bury vs Harrogate Town
Bury or Harrogate Town: which side does the model back?
The model gives Harrogate Town the best chance at 51%, with the draw at 23%. That is a majority outcome: the win is likelier than a draw and a defeat put together.
What scoreline is most likely in Bury vs Harrogate Town?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 9.5%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 65%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Is BTTS likely in Bury vs Harrogate Town?
The BTTS yes line is rated 66%. Bury find the net in 75% of simulated matches and Harrogate Town in 86%.
What time does Bury vs Harrogate Town kick off?
Kick-off is 11:30 UTC on Saturday, 17 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.