Uxbridge vs AFC Hornchurch prediction

Our Uxbridge vs AFC Hornchurch prediction and pick

The Uxbridge vs AFC Hornchurch prediction leans to AFC Hornchurch: 63% against 17% for Uxbridge, with 20% left for the draw, in the FA Cup on Saturday, 17 October 2026.

Expected goals are 1.05 for Uxbridge and 2.21 for AFC Hornchurch, a total of 3.26, which puts over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 59%.

Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.

Our main pick is aFC Hornchurch to win at 63%. 1xBet offer the top price at 1.50. That price implies 67%, 3 points over the model figure.

At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on Uxbridge vs AFC Hornchurch.

For a safer line, aFC Hornchurch or draw covers 83% of outcomes at 1.10.

The draw sits at only 20%, so the 12 double chance and draw no bet keep more of the price than usual.

Over the last 5 matches Uxbridge stand at 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeats; AFC Hornchurch show 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in 5.

Uxbridge vs AFC Hornchurch over 2.5 goals, BTTS and correct score

Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 84%, over 2.5 at 63%, over 3.5 at 41%; under 2.5 is 37% and under 3.5 is 59%.

Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 63%; 1xBet pay 1.48.

BTTS yes stands at 59%. Uxbridge score in 65% of simulations against a 35% clean sheet for AFC Hornchurch; AFC Hornchurch score in 89% while Uxbridge shut them out 11% of the time.

Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 59%.

Correct score: 1-2 leads at 9.8%, then 0-2 at 9.4% and 1-1 at 8.9%.

With the top scoreline at 9.8%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Uxbridge vs AFC Hornchurch; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.

Half-time / full-time: half-time AFC Hornchurch, full-time AFC Hornchurch is the top combination at 42%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 77%.