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Live 22 UTC
Liga Pro Placement Group - 6 Sunday, 8 November 2026 Kick-off
LibertadHomeWWWLD
Sun 8 Nov
EmelecAwayLLWLL
422929
Libertad winDrawEmelec win
Kick-off
Sun 8 Nov
Expected goals
2.51
1.38 : 1.13
Favourite
42%
Libertad
Over 2.5 goals
46%
model chance
Both teams to score
51%
model chance
Prices compared
2
in the odds table

Best odds for Libertad vs Emelec

Bookmaker1X2Over 2.5Under 2.5BTTS yesBTTS no
1xBet2.383.192.972.001.761.751.95Bet
22Bet2.383.192.972.001.761.751.95Bet

Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.

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Libertad to win partner prices

22Bet pay the best Libertad price at 2.38, 22Bet lead the draw at 3.19 and 22Bet have Emelec longest at 2.97.

Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 93.5%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.

Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 2.00 (22Bet) and under 2.5 1.76 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.75 (22Bet) and no 1.95 (1xBet).

The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.

71%

Our prediction

Libertad or Emelec (no draw)
LeanExpected goals 1.38 : 1.13-6% against the best price
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
54% chance1.76
BTTSBoth teams to score
51% chance1.75
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
72% chance1.40fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
13% chance7.87fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Libertad, full-time Libertad
25% chance3.97fair
First halfFirst-half goal
68% chance1.48fair

Libertad v Emelec head to head

1Libertad wins
1Draw
0Emelec wins
  • 20 Sep 26Emelec1:2Libertad
  • 4 Sep 26Libertad1:1Emelec

2 meetings since coverage began, 5 goals in total: Libertad scored 3, Emelec scored 2.

Libertad vs Emelec prediction

Libertad vs Emelec prediction, who wins and at what price

Libertad vs Emelec prediction for the Liga Pro on Sunday, 8 November 2026: the model makes Libertad marginally ahead at 42%, with the draw at 29% and Emelec at 29%.

Libertad are expected to score 1.38 and Emelec 1.13, so the total line is 2.51 goals; over 2.5 lands at 46% and BTTS at 51%.

One score grid produces every chance here: the 1X2 split, the goal lines, BTTS and the scorelines all come from the same pair of expected goals.

The pick for Libertad vs Emelec is libertad or Emelec (no draw), a 71% chance. At 1.32 with 1xBet the market prices it at 76%, against 71% from the model.

At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on Libertad vs Emelec.

Form check: Libertad have won 3 of their last 5 with 10 scored and 5 conceded, Emelec 1 of 5 scoring 6 and conceding 9.

The previous 2 meetings between these sides produced 5 goals in total; Libertad won 1, Emelec won 0 and 1 finished level.

Goals, BTTS and correct score for Libertad vs Emelec

Under 2.5 goals is rated 54% and under 3.5 76%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 72% and over 2.5 at 46%.

Under 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 54%; 1xBet pay 1.76.

The chance of both teams scoring is 51%, built from Libertad scoring in 75% of runs and Emelec in 68%; clean sheets come at 32% for Libertad and 25% for Emelec.

Correct score: 1-1 leads at 12.7%, then 1-0 at 11.2% and 0-1 at 9.2%.

A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.

In the half-time / full-time market half-time Libertad, full-time Libertad leads at 25%. A goal before the break is rated 68%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.

All markets, Libertad vs Emelec

Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 42% / 29% / 29% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.

Match result

Libertad to win42%2.38
Draw29%3.19
Emelec to win29%2.97
Libertad, draw no bet59%fair 1.70
Emelec, draw no bet41%fair 2.42

Double chance

Libertad or draw71%1.36
Emelec or draw58%1.54
Libertad or Emelec (no draw)71%1.32

Goals

Over 0.5 goals92%fair 1.09
Over 1.5 goals72%fair 1.40
Over 2.5 goals46%2.00
Over 3.5 goals25%fair 4.08
Over 4.5 goals11%fair 9.09
Under 1.5 goals29%fair 3.51
Under 2.5 goals54%1.76
Under 3.5 goals76%fair 1.32

BTTS

Both teams to score51%1.75
Not both teams to score49%1.95

Halves

First-half goal68%fair 1.48
Over 1.5 first-half goals31%fair 3.21
Second-half goal75%fair 1.34

Team goals

Libertad to score75%fair 1.34
Emelec to score68%fair 1.48
Libertad clean sheet32%fair 3.10
Emelec clean sheet25%fair 3.97
Libertad to win to nil30%fair 3.37
Emelec to win to nil23%fair 4.33

Odd or even

Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99

Most likely scores

1-112.7%
1-011.2%
0-19.2%
2-18.7%
0-08.1%
2-07.7%

Half-time / full-time

Libertad / Libertad25.2%
Emelec / Emelec17.5%
Draw / Draw16.7%
Draw / Libertad15.1%
Draw / Emelec11.5%

Questions about Libertad vs Emelec

Who is favourite in Libertad vs Emelec?

The model gives Libertad the best chance at 42%, with the draw at 29%. Under 50% the favourite fails to win more often than it wins, which is why the double chance is the safer line here.

Libertad vs Emelec correct score: what does the model say?

1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 12.7%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 46% backs the same picture with less variance.

Libertad vs Emelec both teams to score: yes or no?

The BTTS yes line is rated 51%. Libertad find the net in 75% of simulated matches and Emelec in 68%.

When do Libertad play Emelec?

Kick-off is 21:00 UTC on Sunday, 8 November 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.

Our pick, Libertad v EmelecLibertad or Emelec (no draw), 71%
1.32Bet