First NL predictions for every fixture

First NL predictions for the coming round

First NL predictions cover 8 of the next 8 fixtures. 0 of them already carry bookmaker prices. On an average fixture in this round the model makes the favourite a 42% chance, the draw 27%, over 2.5 goals 46% and BTTS 50%.

Expected goals average 2.52 a match, so the goal lines open below 2.5 for most of the round. Home sides are favoured in 8 of the 8 rated fixtures. 0 picks reach banker grade, which needs a chance of 80% or more.

The strongest First NL pick of the round is over 1.5 goals in Dugopolje v Dubrava Zagreb on Sun 8 Nov, rated 76%.

No First NL pick in this round clears the 3% edge bar against the best price, so the value page lists nothing from this competition today. The picks below stand on probability alone.

Each row on the board shows the three-way bar, the pick in green and the best price. The match pages print every market, the six most likely scores and the full First NL odds table.

First NL results and trends, last 60 days

The last 64 First NL matches of the past 60 days produced 28 home wins, 13 draws and 23 away wins. That is a home win rate of 44% and a draw rate of 20%.

Goals averaged 2.48 a match, 1.30 for the home side and 1.19 for the visitors. Over 2.5 goals landed in 45% of matches and over 1.5 in 64%. Both teams scored in 50%, and at least one side kept a clean sheet in 50%.

The highest-scoring match in the window was Jadran LP 4-4 Dugopolje on Sat 17 Oct.

The model rates over 2.5 at 46% for the coming round against a 45% strike rate in these results, so the two readings agree.

The results block under the board lists each match with the final score, the half-time score and the pick that was frozen before kick-off, so the trend can be checked line by line.

How the First NL tips have gone

8 First NL tips have been settled in the last 60 days: 4 won and 4 lost, a hit rate of 50%. At a flat stake on the best price at freeze time the return is -1%.

The best-performing market for the competition appears here once any single market reaches five settled tips. Until then the figures above cover every market together and move quickly from round to round.

Every tip is frozen 40 hours before kick-off and graded from the final score. The day-by-day list sits on the results pages. 0 further First NL tips are frozen and waiting for their matches.

A frozen tip cannot be edited or withdrawn, so this record reads the same way as the site-wide one: what was published, then what came in.

First NL odds comparison

No First NL fixture in the coming round is priced yet. Prices usually arrive two to three days before kick-off for a top division and the evening before for cups and lower divisions.

Until then the match pages show the fair price from the model, labelled as such. The edge column stays blank because there is no bookmaker line to measure it against.

Once prices land, each First NL match page lists every bookmaker's 1X2, over/under 2.5 and both teams to score lines with the best in each column marked. Taking the best price on each outcome typically pays two to four points more than a single bookmaker's full line, and partner bookmakers carry a Bet button.