Vila Nova vs Criciuma prediction

Vila Nova vs Criciuma prediction and best bet

Vila Nova are marginally ahead in the Vila Nova vs Criciuma prediction, rated 43% to win this Brazil Serie B match on Friday, 6 November 2026. Criciuma sit at 27% and the draw at 30%.

Expected goals are 1.26 for Vila Nova and 0.96 for Criciuma, a total of 2.22, which puts over 2.5 goals at 38% and both teams to score at 45%.

Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.

Vila Nova or draw is the main selection, rated 73%. At 1.29 with 1xBet the market prices it at 78%, against 73% from the model.

The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.

A 30% draw chance is high for this level and argues against backing either side to win outright.

Vila Nova average 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded across their last 5, Criciuma 1.0 and 0.6 across 5.

Under 2.5, both teams to score and the scoreline in Vila Nova vs Criciuma

On the goal lines Vila Nova vs Criciuma reads 65% for over 1.5, 38% for over 2.5 and 19% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 62%.

Under 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 62%; 1xBet pay 1.53.

BTTS yes stands at 45%. Vila Nova score in 72% of simulations against a 28% clean sheet for Criciuma; Criciuma score in 62% while Vila Nova shut them out 38% of the time.

Correct score: 1-0 leads at 13.7%, then 1-1 at 13.1% and 0-0 at 10.9%.

A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.

Half-time / full-time: half-time Vila Nova, full-time Vila Nova is the top combination at 25%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 63%.