Brazil Serie B
CriciumaHomeLWWLW
2:0Half-time 1:0
Ponte PretaAwayLLDDL9073
Criciuma winDrawPonte Preta win
CriciumaHomeLWWLWPonte PretaAwayLLDDL- Kick-off Fri 30 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.76 3.28 : 0.48
- Favourite
- 90% Criciuma
- Over 2.5 goals
- 70% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 37% model chance
- Prices compared
- 6 in the odds table
Best odds for Criciuma vs Ponte Preta
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.05 | 11.00 | 25.00 | 1.27 | 3.14 | 2.40 | 1.51 | Bet |
 22Bet | 1.10 | 9.54 | 18.00 | 1.36 | 3.00 | 2.38 | 1.54 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 1.09 | 9.80 | 25.00 | 1.36 | 2.94 | - | - | Bet |
 Betwinner | 1.10 | 9.54 | 18.00 | 1.36 | 3.00 | 2.38 | 1.54 | Bet |
 Melbet | 1.10 | 9.54 | 18.00 | 1.36 | 3.00 | 2.38 | 1.54 | Bet |
 Stake | 1.09 | 9.00 | 21.00 | - | - | 2.38 | 1.49 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Criciuma to win partner prices
Melbet pay the best Criciuma price at 1.10, 1xBet lead the draw at 11.00 and BC.Game have Ponte Preta longest at 25.00.
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 96.2%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 1.36 (Melbet) and under 2.5 3.14 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 2.40 (1xBet) and no 1.54 (Melbet).
Each row of the table is one bookmaker and the green cell is the top price in that column. A Bet button means a partner link that we count; rows without one are there for comparison.
90%
Our prediction
Criciuma to win
Double chanceCriciuma or draw
97% chance-
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
70% chance1.36
BTTSNot both teams to score
63% chance1.54
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
89% chance1.13fair
ScorelineCorrect score 3-0
14% chance7.30fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Criciuma, full-time Criciuma
68% chance1.47fair
Criciuma vs Ponte Preta prediction
Criciuma vs Ponte Preta prediction and best bet
Criciuma host Ponte Preta on Friday, 30 October 2026 in the Brazil Serie B, and the model has Criciuma at 90%, the draw at 7% and Ponte Preta at 3%: that is the Criciuma vs Ponte Preta prediction in one line.
The goal expectancy is 3.76 in total, split 3.28 to Criciuma and 0.48 to Ponte Preta. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 70% and both teams to score 37%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
Criciuma to win is the main selection, rated 90%. At 1.10 with Melbet the market prices it at 91%, against 90% from the model.
Criciuma or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 97% chance, priced -.
The draw sits at only 7%, so the 12 double chance and draw no bet keep more of the price than usual.
Over the last 5 matches Criciuma stand at 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats; Ponte Preta show 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in 5.
Goals forecast for Criciuma vs Ponte Preta with over 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 89%, over 2.5 at 70%, over 3.5 at 52%; under 2.5 is 30% and under 3.5 is 48%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 70%; Melbet pay 1.36.
The chance of both teams scoring is 37%, built from Criciuma scoring in 96% of runs and Ponte Preta in 38%; clean sheets come at 62% for Criciuma and 4% for Ponte Preta.
Not both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 63%.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Criciuma vs Ponte Preta: 3-0 (13.7%), 2-0 (12.5%) and 4-0 (11.2%).
Even the leading scoreline holds only 13.7% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Criciuma, full-time Criciuma is the top combination at 68%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 82%.
Every market rated for Criciuma vs Ponte Preta
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 90% / 7% / 3% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
Criciuma to win90%1.10
Draw7%11.00
Ponte Preta to win3%25.00
Criciuma, draw no bet97%fair 1.03
Ponte Preta, draw no bet3%fair 32.26
Double chance
Criciuma or draw97%-
Ponte Preta or draw10%7.64
Criciuma or Ponte Preta (no draw)93%1.04
Goals
Over 0.5 goals98%fair 1.03
Over 1.5 goals89%fair 1.13
Over 2.5 goals70%1.36
Over 3.5 goals52%fair 1.94
Over 4.5 goals32%fair 3.11
Under 1.5 goals11%fair 8.85
Under 2.5 goals30%3.14
Under 3.5 goals48%fair 2.07
BTTS
Both teams to score37%2.40
Not both teams to score63%1.54
Halves
First-half goal82%fair 1.23
Over 1.5 first-half goals50%fair 1.98
Second-half goal87%fair 1.14
Team goals
Criciuma to score96%fair 1.04
Ponte Preta to score38%fair 2.62
Criciuma clean sheet62%fair 1.62
Ponte Preta clean sheet4%fair 26.32
Criciuma to win to nil57%fair 1.76
Ponte Preta to win to nil3%fair 37.04
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
3-013.7%
2-012.5%
4-011.2%
1-07.6%
5-07.4%
3-16.6%
Half-time / full-time
Criciuma / Criciuma68.2%
Draw / Criciuma18.7%
Draw / Draw4.8%
Ponte Preta / Criciuma2.3%
Criciuma / Draw1.5%
Questions about Criciuma vs Ponte Preta
Criciuma or Ponte Preta: which side does the model back?
The model gives Criciuma the best chance at 90%, with the draw at 7%. That is a majority outcome: the win is likelier than a draw and a defeat put together.
What is the correct score prediction for Criciuma vs Ponte Preta?
3-0 is the most likely scoreline at 13.7%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 70%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Will both teams score in Criciuma vs Ponte Preta?
The BTTS yes line is rated 37%. Criciuma find the net in 96% of simulated matches and Ponte Preta in 38%.
When do Criciuma play Ponte Preta?
Kick-off is 22:30 UTC on Friday, 30 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.