A-League
Wellington PhoenixHomeWWW
2:1Half-time 1:1
Melbourne VictoryAwayWLDLD292645
Wellington Phoenix winDrawMelbourne Victory win
Wellington PhoenixHomeWWWMelbourne VictoryAwayWLDLD- Kick-off Sun 18 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.95 1.29 : 1.66
- Favourite
- 45% Melbourne Victory
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 60% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Best odds for Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 3.24 | 3.78 | 2.16 | 1.70 | 2.22 | 1.54 | 2.32 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Melbourne Victory to win partner prices
Best 1X2 lines behind the Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory prediction: Wellington Phoenix 3.24 (1xBet), draw 3.78 (1xBet), Melbourne Victory 2.16 (1xBet).
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 96.5%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 1.70 (1xBet) and under 2.5 2.22 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.54 (1xBet) and no 2.32 (1xBet).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
74%
Our prediction
Wellington Phoenix or Melbourne Victory (no draw)
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
56% chance1.70
BTTSBoth teams to score
60% chance1.54
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
79% chance1.26fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
11% chance8.93fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Melbourne Victory, full-time Melbourne Victory
28% chance3.55fair
First halfFirst-half goal
74% chance1.36fair
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory prediction
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory prediction, who wins and at what price
Melbourne Victory are marginally ahead in the Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory prediction, rated 45% to win this A-League match on Sunday, 18 October 2026. Wellington Phoenix sit at 29% and the draw at 26%.
The goal expectancy is 2.95 in total, split 1.29 to Wellington Phoenix and 1.66 to Melbourne Victory. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 56% and both teams to score 60%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
The pick for Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory is wellington Phoenix or Melbourne Victory (no draw), a 74% chance. At 1.30 with 1xBet the market prices it at 77%, against 74% from the model.
The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.
Over the last 3 matches Wellington Phoenix stand at 3 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats; Melbourne Victory show 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats in 5.
How many goals in Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory? Lines, BTTS and scorelines
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 79%, over 2.5 at 56%, over 3.5 at 34%; under 2.5 is 44% and under 3.5 is 66%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 56%, best priced 1.70 at 1xBet.
BTTS yes stands at 60%. Wellington Phoenix score in 73% of simulations against a 28% clean sheet for Melbourne Victory; Melbourne Victory score in 81% while Wellington Phoenix shut them out 19% of the time.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 60%.
Correct score: 1-1 leads at 11.2%, then 1-2 at 9.3% and 0-1 at 8.7%.
A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Melbourne Victory, full-time Melbourne Victory leads at 28%. A goal before the break is rated 74%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
All markets, Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory
The grid built from 1.29 and 1.66 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Wellington Phoenix to win29%3.24
Draw26%3.78
Melbourne Victory to win45%2.16
Wellington Phoenix, draw no bet39%fair 2.56
Melbourne Victory, draw no bet61%fair 1.64
Double chance
Wellington Phoenix or draw55%1.74
Melbourne Victory or draw71%1.37
Wellington Phoenix or Melbourne Victory (no draw)74%1.30
Goals
Over 0.5 goals95%fair 1.05
Over 1.5 goals79%fair 1.26
Over 2.5 goals56%1.70
Over 3.5 goals34%fair 2.92
Over 4.5 goals18%fair 5.68
Under 1.5 goals21%fair 4.83
Under 2.5 goals44%2.22
Under 3.5 goals66%fair 1.52
BTTS
Both teams to score60%1.54
Not both teams to score40%2.32
Halves
First-half goal74%fair 1.36
Over 1.5 first-half goals38%fair 2.61
Second-half goal80%fair 1.25
Team goals
Wellington Phoenix to score73%fair 1.38
Melbourne Victory to score81%fair 1.23
Wellington Phoenix clean sheet19%fair 5.26
Melbourne Victory clean sheet28%fair 3.64
Wellington Phoenix to win to nil18%fair 5.71
Melbourne Victory to win to nil25%fair 3.95
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
1-111.2%
1-29.3%
0-18.7%
2-17.2%
0-27.2%
1-06.8%
Half-time / full-time
Melbourne Victory / Melbourne Victory28.2%
Wellington Phoenix / Wellington Phoenix17.2%
Draw / Melbourne Victory15.1%
Draw / Draw13.7%
Draw / Wellington Phoenix10.6%
Questions about Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory
Wellington Phoenix or Melbourne Victory: which side does the model back?
The model gives Melbourne Victory the best chance at 45%, with the draw at 26%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.
What scoreline is most likely in Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 11.2%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 56%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Will both teams score in Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory?
The BTTS yes line is rated 60%. Wellington Phoenix find the net in 73% of simulated matches and Melbourne Victory in 81%.
When do Wellington Phoenix play Melbourne Victory?
Kick-off is 02:00 UTC on Sunday, 18 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.