A-League
Melbourne VictoryHomeWLDLD
1:1Half-time 1:0
Melbourne CityAwayLDW392734
Melbourne Victory winDrawMelbourne City win
Melbourne VictoryHomeWLDLDMelbourne CityAwayLDW- Kick-off Sat 24 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.80 1.46 : 1.34
- Favourite
- 39% Melbourne Victory
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 58% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Best odds for Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 2.54 | 3.56 | 2.76 | 1.82 | 2.06 | 1.60 | 2.19 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Melbourne Victory to win partner prices
1xBet pay the best Melbourne Victory price at 2.54, 1xBet lead the draw at 3.56 and 1xBet have Melbourne City longest at 2.76.
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 96.4%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 1.82 (1xBet) and under 2.5 2.06 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.60 (1xBet) and no 2.19 (1xBet).
Each row of the table is one bookmaker and the green cell is the top price in that column. A Bet button means a partner link that we count; rows without one are there for comparison.
73%
Our prediction
Melbourne Victory or Melbourne City (no draw)
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
53% chance1.82
BTTSBoth teams to score
58% chance1.60
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
77% chance1.30fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
12% chance8.40fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Melbourne Victory, full-time Melbourne Victory
24% chance4.18fair
First halfFirst-half goal
72% chance1.40fair
Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City prediction
Our Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City prediction and pick
The Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City prediction is a coin flip by the numbers. A-League on Saturday, 24 October 2026 gives Melbourne Victory a 39% chance, Melbourne City 34% and the draw 27%, so the value sits in covering two results rather than one.
Expected goals are 1.46 for Melbourne Victory and 1.34 for Melbourne City, a total of 2.80, which puts over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 58%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
Melbourne Victory or Melbourne City (no draw) is the main selection, rated 73%. At 1.32 with 1xBet the market prices it at 76%, against 73% from the model.
The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.
Form check: Melbourne Victory have won 1 of their last 5 with 6 scored and 6 conceded, Melbourne City 1 of 3 scoring 4 and conceding 5.
Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City goals, both teams to score and half-time forecast
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 77%, over 2.5 at 53%, over 3.5 at 31%; under 2.5 is 47% and under 3.5 is 69%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 53%; 1xBet pay 1.82.
BTTS yes stands at 58%. Melbourne Victory score in 77% of simulations against a 23% clean sheet for Melbourne City; Melbourne City score in 74% while Melbourne Victory shut them out 26% of the time.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 58%.
Correct score: 1-1 leads at 11.9%, then 1-0 at 8.9% and 2-1 at 8.7%.
Even the leading scoreline holds only 11.9% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Melbourne Victory, full-time Melbourne Victory leads at 24%. A goal before the break is rated 72%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market rated for Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
Melbourne Victory to win39%2.54
Draw27%3.56
Melbourne City to win34%2.76
Melbourne Victory, draw no bet54%fair 1.86
Melbourne City, draw no bet46%fair 2.17
Double chance
Melbourne Victory or draw66%1.48
Melbourne City or draw61%1.55
Melbourne Victory or Melbourne City (no draw)73%1.32
Goals
Over 0.5 goals94%fair 1.06
Over 1.5 goals77%fair 1.30
Over 2.5 goals53%1.82
Over 3.5 goals31%fair 3.25
Over 4.5 goals15%fair 6.58
Under 1.5 goals23%fair 4.33
Under 2.5 goals47%2.06
Under 3.5 goals69%fair 1.45
BTTS
Both teams to score58%1.60
Not both teams to score42%2.19
Halves
First-half goal72%fair 1.40
Over 1.5 first-half goals36%fair 2.79
Second-half goal79%fair 1.27
Team goals
Melbourne Victory to score77%fair 1.30
Melbourne City to score74%fair 1.36
Melbourne Victory clean sheet26%fair 3.82
Melbourne City clean sheet23%fair 4.31
Melbourne Victory to win to nil24%fair 4.15
Melbourne City to win to nil21%fair 4.67
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99
Most likely scores
1-111.9%
1-08.9%
2-18.7%
0-18.1%
1-28%
2-06.5%
Half-time / full-time
Melbourne Victory / Melbourne Victory23.9%
Melbourne City / Melbourne City20.2%
Draw / Draw14.7%
Draw / Melbourne Victory13.8%
Draw / Melbourne City12.2%
Questions about Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City
Who is favourite in Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City?
The model gives Melbourne Victory the best chance at 39%, with the draw at 27%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.
What scoreline is most likely in Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 11.9%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 53%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Is BTTS likely in Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City?
The BTTS yes line is rated 58%. Melbourne Victory find the net in 77% of simulated matches and Melbourne City in 74%.
When do Melbourne Victory play Melbourne City?
Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City starts at 08:40 UTC on Saturday, 24 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.