A-League
Adelaide UnitedHomeWLLL
Sun 8 Nov
Melbourne VictoryAwayWLDLD342739
Adelaide United winDrawMelbourne Victory win
Adelaide UnitedHomeWLLLMelbourne VictoryAwayWLDLD- Kick-off Sun 8 Nov
- Expected goals
- 3.09 1.49 : 1.60
- Favourite
- 39% Melbourne Victory
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 63% model chance
- Prices compared
- 6 in the odds table
Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory betting odds by bookmaker
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 2.78 | 3.69 | 2.46 | 1.65 | 2.32 | 1.49 | 2.44 | Bet |
 22Bet | 2.74 | 3.62 | 2.43 | 1.63 | 2.29 | 1.49 | 2.44 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 2.74 | 3.50 | 2.34 | 1.57 | 2.28 | 1.46 | 2.44 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 2.74 | 3.62 | 2.43 | 1.63 | 2.29 | 1.49 | 2.44 | Bet |
 Melbet | 2.74 | 3.62 | 2.43 | 1.63 | 2.29 | 1.49 | 2.44 | Bet |
 Stake | 2.70 | 3.55 | 2.42 | 1.59 | 2.22 | 1.51 | 2.34 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Melbourne Victory to win partner prices
The top 1X2 prices for Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory are 2.78 for Adelaide United at 1xBet, 3.69 for the draw at 1xBet and 2.46 for Melbourne Victory at 1xBet.
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 96.4%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
For the goals, over 2.5 pays 1.65 (1xBet) and under 2.5 2.32 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.51 (Stake) and no 2.44 (22Bet).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
73%
Our prediction
Adelaide United or Melbourne Victory (no draw)
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
59% chance1.65
BTTSBoth teams to score
63% chance1.51
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
81% chance1.23fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
11% chance9.26fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Melbourne Victory, full-time Melbourne Victory
24% chance4.10fair
First halfFirst-half goal
75% chance1.33fair
Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory prediction
Our Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory prediction and pick
Nothing separates the sides in the Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory prediction for Sunday, 8 November 2026: 34% home, 27% draw and 39% away in the A-League. A match this tight rewards the double chance and the goal markets more than a straight pick.
Expected goals are 1.49 for Adelaide United and 1.60 for Melbourne Victory, a total of 3.09, which puts over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 63%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Our main pick is adelaide United or Melbourne Victory (no draw) at 73%. At 1.31 with 1xBet the market prices it at 76%, against 73% from the model.
At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory.
Over the last 4 matches Adelaide United stand at 1 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats; Melbourne Victory show 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats in 5.
How many goals in Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory? Lines, BTTS and scorelines
On the goal lines Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory reads 81% for over 1.5, 59% for over 2.5 and 37% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 41%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 59%; 1xBet pay 1.65.
BTTS yes stands at 63%. Adelaide United score in 78% of simulations against a 23% clean sheet for Melbourne Victory; Melbourne Victory score in 80% while Adelaide United shut them out 20% of the time.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 63%.
Correct score: 1-1 leads at 10.8%, then 1-2 at 8.7% and 2-1 at 8.1%.
Even the leading scoreline holds only 10.8% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Melbourne Victory, full-time Melbourne Victory is the top combination at 24%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 75%.
Every market for Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 34% / 27% / 39% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
Adelaide United to win34%2.78
Draw27%3.69
Melbourne Victory to win39%2.46
Adelaide United, draw no bet47%fair 2.14
Melbourne Victory, draw no bet53%fair 1.88
Double chance
Adelaide United or draw61%1.59
Melbourne Victory or draw66%1.48
Adelaide United or Melbourne Victory (no draw)73%1.31
Goals
Over 0.5 goals95%fair 1.05
Over 1.5 goals81%fair 1.23
Over 2.5 goals59%1.65
Over 3.5 goals37%fair 2.68
Over 4.5 goals20%fair 5.00
Under 1.5 goals19%fair 5.38
Under 2.5 goals41%2.32
Under 3.5 goals63%fair 1.59
BTTS
Both teams to score63%1.51
Not both teams to score37%2.44
Halves
First-half goal75%fair 1.33
Over 1.5 first-half goals41%fair 2.47
Second-half goal82%fair 1.22
Team goals
Adelaide United to score78%fair 1.29
Melbourne Victory to score80%fair 1.25
Adelaide United clean sheet20%fair 4.95
Melbourne Victory clean sheet23%fair 4.44
Adelaide United to win to nil19%fair 5.38
Melbourne Victory to win to nil21%fair 4.83
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
1-110.8%
1-28.7%
2-18.1%
0-17.3%
1-06.8%
2-26.5%
Half-time / full-time
Melbourne Victory / Melbourne Victory24.4%
Adelaide United / Adelaide United21.1%
Draw / Melbourne Victory13.3%
Draw / Draw13.1%
Draw / Adelaide United12%
Questions about Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory
Adelaide United or Melbourne Victory: which side does the model back?
The model gives Melbourne Victory the best chance at 39%, with the draw at 27%. Under 50% the favourite fails to win more often than it wins, which is why the double chance is the safer line here.
What is the correct score prediction for Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 10.8%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 59% backs the same picture with less variance.
Will both teams score in Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory?
The BTTS yes line is rated 63%. Adelaide United find the net in 78% of simulated matches and Melbourne Victory in 80%.
When do Adelaide United play Melbourne Victory?
Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory starts at 06:00 UTC on Sunday, 8 November 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.