FAW Championship
Carmarthen TownHomeWLDLL
Sat 7 Nov
Aberystwyth TownAwayDWLW242056
Carmarthen Town winDrawAberystwyth Town win
Carmarthen TownHomeWLDLLAberystwyth TownAwayDWLW- Kick-off Sat 7 Nov
- Expected goals
- 3.87 1.51 : 2.36
- Favourite
- 56% Aberystwyth Town
- Over 2.5 goals
- 74% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 70% model chance
- Prices compared
- - awaiting lines
Best odds for Carmarthen Town vs Aberystwyth Town
No bookmaker prices stored for this match yet.
Bookmakers have not opened Carmarthen Town vs Aberystwyth Town yet. The lines usually arrive within two days of kick-off, and the markets above show the fair price from the model until then.
56%
Our prediction
Aberystwyth Town to win
1.77fair
Double chanceCarmarthen Town or Aberystwyth Town (no draw)
81% chance1.24fair
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
74% chance1.36fair
BTTSBoth teams to score
70% chance1.42fair
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
90% chance1.11fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-2
9% chance11.36fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Aberystwyth Town, full-time Aberystwyth Town
37% chance2.71fair
Carmarthen Town vs Aberystwyth Town prediction
Carmarthen Town vs Aberystwyth Town prediction, who wins and at what price
Carmarthen Town host Aberystwyth Town on Saturday, 7 November 2026 in the FAW Championship, and the model has Aberystwyth Town at 56%, the draw at 20% and Carmarthen Town at 24%: that is the Carmarthen Town vs Aberystwyth Town prediction in one line.
Expected goals are 1.51 for Carmarthen Town and 2.36 for Aberystwyth Town, a total of 3.87, which puts over 2.5 goals at 74% and both teams to score at 70%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
The pick for Carmarthen Town vs Aberystwyth Town is aberystwyth Town to win, a 56% chance. No bookmaker has priced it yet, so the fair price from the model is shown instead.
Carmarthen Town or Aberystwyth Town (no draw) is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 81% chance.
The draw sits at only 20%, so the 12 double chance and draw no bet keep more of the price than usual.
Form check: Carmarthen Town have won 1 of their last 5 with 7 scored and 10 conceded, Aberystwyth Town 2 of 4 scoring 5 and conceding 3.
Goals forecast for Carmarthen Town vs Aberystwyth Town with over 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
Under 2.5 goals is rated 26% and under 3.5 46%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 90% and over 2.5 at 74%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 74%.
Both teams to score is 70%: Carmarthen Town find the net in 78% of simulated matches and Aberystwyth Town in 91%. Carmarthen Town keep a clean sheet 9% of the time and Aberystwyth Town 22%.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 70%.
Correct score: 1-2 leads at 8.8%, then 1-1 at 7.4% and 1-3 at 6.9%.
Even the leading scoreline holds only 8.8% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Aberystwyth Town, full-time Aberystwyth Town leads at 37%. A goal before the break is rated 83%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market for Carmarthen Town vs Aberystwyth Town
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 24% / 20% / 56% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
Carmarthen Town to win24%fair 4.15
Draw20%fair 5.10
Aberystwyth Town to win56%fair 1.77
Carmarthen Town, draw no bet30%fair 3.34
Aberystwyth Town, draw no bet70%fair 1.43
Double chance
Carmarthen Town or draw44%fair 2.29
Aberystwyth Town or draw76%fair 1.32
Carmarthen Town or Aberystwyth Town (no draw)81%fair 1.24
Goals
Over 0.5 goals98%fair 1.02
Over 1.5 goals90%fair 1.11
Over 2.5 goals74%fair 1.36
Over 3.5 goals54%fair 1.85
Over 4.5 goals35%fair 2.89
Under 1.5 goals10%fair 9.80
Under 2.5 goals26%fair 3.80
Under 3.5 goals46%fair 2.18
BTTS
Both teams to score70%fair 1.42
Not both teams to score30%fair 3.36
Halves
First-half goal83%fair 1.21
Over 1.5 first-half goals52%fair 1.92
Second-half goal88%fair 1.14
Team goals
Carmarthen Town to score78%fair 1.28
Aberystwyth Town to score91%fair 1.10
Carmarthen Town clean sheet9%fair 10.64
Aberystwyth Town clean sheet22%fair 4.52
Carmarthen Town to win to nil9%fair 11.49
Aberystwyth Town to win to nil20%fair 4.93
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
1-28.8%
1-17.4%
1-36.9%
2-26.6%
0-25.8%
2-15.6%
Half-time / full-time
Aberystwyth Town / Aberystwyth Town36.9%
Draw / Aberystwyth Town15.5%
Carmarthen Town / Carmarthen Town14%
Draw / Draw9.3%
Draw / Carmarthen Town7.8%
Questions about Carmarthen Town vs Aberystwyth Town
Carmarthen Town or Aberystwyth Town: which side does the model back?
The model gives Aberystwyth Town the best chance at 56%, with the draw at 20%. That is a majority outcome: the win is likelier than a draw and a defeat put together.
What is the correct score prediction for Carmarthen Town vs Aberystwyth Town?
1-2 is the most likely scoreline at 8.8%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 74%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Will both teams score in Carmarthen Town vs Aberystwyth Town?
The BTTS yes line is rated 70%. Carmarthen Town find the net in 78% of simulated matches and Aberystwyth Town in 91%.
When do Carmarthen Town play Aberystwyth Town?
Kick-off is 19:45 UTC on Saturday, 7 November 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.