Copa Uruguay
PorongosHomeL
0:4Half-time 0:1
Deportivo MaldonadoAwayDWLWW81478
Porongos winDrawDeportivo Maldonado win
PorongosHomeLDeportivo MaldonadoAwayDWLWW- Kick-off Wed 28 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.10 0.64 : 2.46
- Favourite
- 78% Deportivo Maldonado
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 45% model chance
- Prices compared
- 6 in the odds table
Porongos vs Deportivo Maldonado betting odds by bookmaker
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 12.50 | 5.05 | 1.21 | 1.59 | 2.17 | 2.12 | 1.63 | Bet |
 22Bet | 8.69 | 5.16 | 1.32 | 1.63 | 2.20 | 2.28 | 1.59 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 9.00 | 5.00 | 1.27 | 1.60 | 2.22 | 2.06 | 1.63 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 8.69 | 5.16 | 1.32 | 1.63 | 2.20 | 2.28 | 1.59 | Bet |
 Melbet | 8.69 | 5.16 | 1.32 | 1.63 | 2.20 | 2.28 | 1.59 | Bet |
 Stake | 9.00 | 5.60 | 1.27 | 1.57 | 2.21 | 2.02 | 1.68 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Deportivo Maldonado to win partner prices
Best 1X2 lines behind the Porongos vs Deportivo Maldonado prediction: Porongos 12.50 (1xBet), draw 5.60 (Stake), Deportivo Maldonado 1.32 (22Bet).
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 98.1%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 1.63 (22Bet) and under 2.5 2.22 (BC.Game); both teams to score yes pays 2.28 (22Bet) and no 1.68 (Stake).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
78%
Our prediction
Deportivo Maldonado to win
Double chanceDeportivo Maldonado or draw
92% chance1.05
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
59% chance1.63
BTTSNot both teams to score
56% chance1.68
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
82% chance1.23fair
ScorelineCorrect score 0-2
14% chance7.35fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Deportivo Maldonado, full-time Deportivo Maldonado
54% chance1.86fair
Porongos vs Deportivo Maldonado prediction
Porongos vs Deportivo Maldonado prediction, who wins and at what price
The Porongos vs Deportivo Maldonado prediction leans to Deportivo Maldonado: 78% against 8% for Porongos, with 14% left for the draw, in the Copa Uruguay on Wednesday, 28 October 2026.
Porongos are expected to score 0.64 and Deportivo Maldonado 2.46, so the total line is 3.10 goals; over 2.5 lands at 59% and BTTS at 45%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
Our main pick is deportivo Maldonado to win at 78%. 22Bet offer the top price at 1.32. That price implies 76%, 2 points under the model figure.
For a safer line, deportivo Maldonado or draw covers 92% of outcomes at 1.05.
With the draw down at 14%, draw no bet costs little insurance and the 12 line keeps most of the win price.
Goals, BTTS and correct score for Porongos vs Deportivo Maldonado
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 82%, over 2.5 at 59%, over 3.5 at 38%; under 2.5 is 41% and under 3.5 is 63%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 59%, best priced 1.63 at 22Bet.
The chance of both teams scoring is 45%, built from Porongos scoring in 47% of runs and Deportivo Maldonado in 92%; clean sheets come at 9% for Porongos and 53% for Deportivo Maldonado.
The most likely scoreline is 0-2 at 13.6%, followed by 0-3 (11.2%) and 0-1 (11.1%).
With the top scoreline at 13.6%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Porongos vs Deportivo Maldonado; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Deportivo Maldonado, full-time Deportivo Maldonado leads at 54%. A goal before the break is rated 75%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market for Porongos vs Deportivo Maldonado
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 8% / 14% / 78% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
Porongos to win8%12.50
Draw14%5.60
Deportivo Maldonado to win78%1.32
Porongos, draw no bet10%fair 10.53
Deportivo Maldonado, draw no bet91%fair 1.10
Double chance
Porongos or draw23%3.60
Deportivo Maldonado or draw92%1.05
Porongos or Deportivo Maldonado (no draw)86%1.14
Goals
Over 0.5 goals96%fair 1.05
Over 1.5 goals82%fair 1.23
Over 2.5 goals59%1.63
Over 3.5 goals38%fair 2.67
Over 4.5 goals20%fair 4.95
Under 1.5 goals19%fair 5.41
Under 2.5 goals41%2.22
Under 3.5 goals63%fair 1.60
BTTS
Both teams to score45%2.28
Not both teams to score56%1.68
Halves
First-half goal75%fair 1.33
Over 1.5 first-half goals41%fair 2.46
Second-half goal82%fair 1.22
Team goals
Porongos to score47%fair 2.11
Deportivo Maldonado to score92%fair 1.09
Porongos clean sheet9%fair 11.76
Deportivo Maldonado clean sheet53%fair 1.90
Porongos to win to nil8%fair 13.33
Deportivo Maldonado to win to nil49%fair 2.06
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
0-213.6%
0-311.2%
0-111.1%
1-28.7%
1-37.2%
1-17.1%
Half-time / full-time
Deportivo Maldonado / Deportivo Maldonado53.7%
Draw / Deportivo Maldonado20.8%
Draw / Draw9.3%
Porongos / Porongos4%
Draw / Porongos3.2%
Questions about Porongos vs Deportivo Maldonado
Porongos or Deportivo Maldonado: which side does the model back?
The model gives Deportivo Maldonado the best chance at 78%, with the draw at 14%. A chance above 50% means the win is more likely than the other two results combined.
Porongos vs Deportivo Maldonado correct score: what does the model say?
0-2 is the most likely scoreline at 13.6%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 59% backs the same picture with less variance.
Porongos vs Deportivo Maldonado both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 45%. Porongos find the net in 47% of simulated matches and Deportivo Maldonado in 92%.
When do Porongos play Deportivo Maldonado?
Porongos vs Deportivo Maldonado starts at 23:30 UTC on Wednesday, 28 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.