SC Villa vs Mbarara City prediction

Our SC Villa vs Mbarara City prediction and pick

SC Villa host Mbarara City on Thursday, 22 October 2026 in the Uganda Premier League, and the model has SC Villa at 77%, the draw at 17% and Mbarara City at 6%: that is the SC Villa vs Mbarara City prediction in one line.

SC Villa are expected to score 2.36 and Mbarara City 0.56, so the total line is 2.92 goals; over 2.5 lands at 55% and BTTS at 39%.

The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.

The pick for SC Villa vs Mbarara City is sC Villa to win, a 77% chance. 1xBet offer the top price at 1.22. That price implies 82%, 5 points over the model figure.

The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.

For a safer line, sC Villa or draw covers 94% of outcomes at -.

With the draw down at 17%, draw no bet costs little insurance and the 12 line keeps most of the win price.

Over the last 5 matches SC Villa stand at 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats; Mbarara City show 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in 5.

SC Villa vs Mbarara City goals, both teams to score and half-time forecast

Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 79%, over 2.5 at 55%, over 3.5 at 34%; under 2.5 is 45% and under 3.5 is 67%.

The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 55%, best priced 1.65 at 1xBet.

Both teams to score is 39%: SC Villa find the net in 91% of simulated matches and Mbarara City in 43%. SC Villa keep a clean sheet 57% of the time and Mbarara City 9%.

Not both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 61%.

Three scorelines carry the most weight for SC Villa vs Mbarara City: 2-0 (15%), 1-0 (12.7%) and 3-0 (11.8%).

Half-time / full-time: half-time SC Villa, full-time SC Villa is the top combination at 54%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 73%.