Challenge League
FC AarauHomeLLWLW
1:2Half-time 1:0
Étoile CarougeAwayLLLWD562321
FC Aarau winDrawÉtoile Carouge win
FC AarauHomeLLWLWÉtoile CarougeAwayLLLWD- Kick-off Sat 24 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.26 2.03 : 1.23
- Favourite
- 56% FC Aarau
- Over 2.5 goals
- 63% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 63% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge betting odds by bookmaker
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.69 | 3.85 | 3.94 | 1.43 | 2.46 | 1.45 | 2.53 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
FC Aarau to win partner prices
1xBet pay the best FC Aarau price at 1.69, 1xBet lead the draw at 3.85 and 1xBet have Étoile Carouge longest at 3.94.
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 90.5%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 1.43 (1xBet) and under 2.5 2.46 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.45 (1xBet) and no 2.53 (1xBet).
Each row of the table is one bookmaker and the green cell is the top price in that column. A Bet button means a partner link that we count; rows without one are there for comparison.
56%
Our prediction
FC Aarau to win
Double chanceFC Aarau or draw
78% chance1.17
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
63% chance1.43
BTTSBoth teams to score
63% chance1.45
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
84% chance1.20fair
ScorelineCorrect score 2-1
10% chance10.31fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time FC Aarau, full-time FC Aarau
36% chance2.80fair
FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge prediction
FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge prediction, who wins and at what price
FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge prediction for the Challenge League on Saturday, 24 October 2026: the model makes FC Aarau a narrow favourite at 56%, with the draw at 23% and Étoile Carouge at 22%.
FC Aarau are expected to score 2.03 and Étoile Carouge 1.23, so the total line is 3.26 goals; over 2.5 lands at 63% and BTTS at 63%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
FC Aarau to win is the main selection, rated 56%. The best price in our comparison is 1.69 at 1xBet, which implies 59%, so the model sits 4 points below the market.
At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge.
FC Aarau or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 78% chance, priced 1.17.
Form check: FC Aarau have won 2 of their last 5 with 8 scored and 7 conceded, Étoile Carouge 1 of 5 scoring 5 and conceding 12.
Goals forecast for FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge with over 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
Under 2.5 goals is rated 37% and under 3.5 59%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 84% and over 2.5 at 63%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 63%, best priced 1.43 at 1xBet.
The chance of both teams scoring is 63%, built from FC Aarau scoring in 87% of runs and Étoile Carouge in 71%; clean sheets come at 29% for FC Aarau and 13% for Étoile Carouge.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 63%.
The most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9.7%, followed by 1-1 (9.6%) and 2-0 (7.9%).
Even the leading scoreline holds only 9.7% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time FC Aarau, full-time FC Aarau leads at 36%. A goal before the break is rated 77%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market rated for FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 56% / 23% / 22% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
FC Aarau to win56%1.69
Draw23%3.85
Étoile Carouge to win22%3.94
FC Aarau, draw no bet72%fair 1.39
Étoile Carouge, draw no bet28%fair 3.55
Double chance
FC Aarau or draw78%1.17
Étoile Carouge or draw45%1.95
FC Aarau or Étoile Carouge (no draw)77%1.18
Goals
Over 0.5 goals96%fair 1.04
Over 1.5 goals84%fair 1.20
Over 2.5 goals63%1.43
Over 3.5 goals41%fair 2.43
Over 4.5 goals23%fair 4.35
Under 1.5 goals16%fair 6.10
Under 2.5 goals37%2.46
Under 3.5 goals59%fair 1.70
BTTS
Both teams to score63%1.45
Not both teams to score37%2.53
Halves
First-half goal77%fair 1.30
Over 1.5 first-half goals43%fair 2.32
Second-half goal83%fair 1.20
Team goals
FC Aarau to score87%fair 1.15
Étoile Carouge to score71%fair 1.41
FC Aarau clean sheet29%fair 3.42
Étoile Carouge clean sheet13%fair 7.63
FC Aarau to win to nil27%fair 3.72
Étoile Carouge to win to nil12%fair 8.26
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
2-19.7%
1-19.6%
2-07.9%
1-07.8%
3-16.6%
2-26%
Half-time / full-time
FC Aarau / FC Aarau35.7%
Draw / FC Aarau16.7%
Étoile Carouge / Étoile Carouge12.9%
Draw / Draw11.5%
Draw / Étoile Carouge8%
Questions about FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge
Who will win FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge?
The model gives FC Aarau the best chance at 56%, with the draw at 23%. A chance above 50% means the win is more likely than the other two results combined.
What scoreline is most likely in FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge?
2-1 is the most likely scoreline at 9.7%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 63% backs the same picture with less variance.
Is BTTS likely in FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge?
The BTTS yes line is rated 63%. FC Aarau find the net in 87% of simulated matches and Étoile Carouge in 71%.
When do FC Aarau play Étoile Carouge?
Kick-off is 16:00 UTC on Saturday, 24 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.