Segunda División
BurgosHomeLWWWD
1:0Half-time 0:0
SabadellAwayDWLDL353332
Burgos winDrawSabadell win
BurgosHomeLWWWDSabadellAwayDWLDL- Kick-off Sun 18 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.09 1.07 : 1.02
- Favourite
- 35% Burgos
- Over 2.5 goals
- 35% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 44% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Burgos vs Sabadell betting odds by bookmaker
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 2.83 | 2.94 | 2.87 | 2.43 | 1.44 | 2.03 | 1.70 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Burgos to win partner prices
The top 1X2 prices for Burgos vs Sabadell are 2.83 for Burgos at 1xBet, 2.94 for the draw at 1xBet and 2.87 for Sabadell at 1xBet.
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 96%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 2.43 (1xBet) and under 2.5 1.44 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 2.03 (1xBet) and no 1.70 (1xBet).
The table lists every bookmaker line we hold for 1X2, over/under 2.5 and BTTS, with the best price in each column marked. Partner bookmakers carry a Bet button and open through a counted link; the others are shown for comparison only.
68%
Our prediction
Burgos or draw
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
66% chance1.44
BTTSNot both teams to score
56% chance1.70
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
62% chance1.62fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
14% chance7.41fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Draw, full-time Draw
21% chance4.83fair
First halfFirst-half goal
61% chance1.64fair
Burgos vs Sabadell odds movement
Burgos win2.83unchanged
Draw2.94-0.01
Sabadell win2.87-0.13
Over 2.5 goals2.43-0.30
Under 2.5 goals1.44-0.05
Best price in the comparison at each refresh since the match was first priced on 1 Nov, 12:14 UTC. A shortening price means money has come for that outcome.
Burgos vs Sabadell prediction
Burgos vs Sabadell prediction, who wins and at what price
Burgos vs Sabadell prediction for the Segunda División on Sunday, 18 October 2026: the model calls it close, Burgos 35%, draw 33%, Sabadell 32%. With no clear favourite the single-result markets carry real risk, and the goal lines below are where the steadier edges sit.
Burgos are expected to score 1.07 and Sabadell 1.02, so the total line is 2.09 goals; over 2.5 lands at 35% and BTTS at 44%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Burgos or draw is the main selection, rated 68%. The best price in our comparison is 1.44 at 1xBet, which implies 69%, so the model sits 2 points below the market.
A 33% draw chance is high for this level and argues against backing either side to win outright.
Over the last 5 matches Burgos stand at 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats; Sabadell show 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats in 5.
Under 2.5, both teams to score and the scoreline in Burgos vs Sabadell
On the goal lines Burgos vs Sabadell reads 62% for over 1.5, 35% for over 2.5 and 16% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 66%.
Under 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 66%; 1xBet pay 1.44.
Both teams to score is 44%: Burgos find the net in 66% of simulated matches and Sabadell in 64%. Burgos keep a clean sheet 36% of the time and Sabadell 34%.
Correct score: 1-1 leads at 13.5%, then 1-0 at 13.2% and 0-1 at 12.6%.
With the top scoreline at 13.5%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Burgos vs Sabadell; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Draw, full-time Draw leads at 21%. A goal before the break is rated 61%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
All markets, Burgos vs Sabadell
The grid built from 1.07 and 1.02 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Burgos to win35%2.83
Draw33%2.94
Sabadell to win32%2.87
Burgos, draw no bet52%fair 1.93
Sabadell, draw no bet48%fair 2.08
Double chance
Burgos or draw68%1.44
Sabadell or draw65%1.45
Burgos or Sabadell (no draw)67%1.42
Goals
Over 0.5 goals88%fair 1.14
Over 1.5 goals62%fair 1.62
Over 2.5 goals35%2.43
Over 3.5 goals16%fair 6.29
Over 4.5 goals6%fair 16.39
Under 1.5 goals38%fair 2.62
Under 2.5 goals66%1.44
Under 3.5 goals84%fair 1.19
BTTS
Both teams to score44%2.03
Not both teams to score56%1.70
Halves
First-half goal61%fair 1.64
Over 1.5 first-half goals24%fair 4.13
Second-half goal68%fair 1.46
Team goals
Burgos to score66%fair 1.52
Sabadell to score64%fair 1.56
Burgos clean sheet36%fair 2.77
Sabadell clean sheet34%fair 2.92
Burgos to win to nil32%fair 3.12
Sabadell to win to nil30%fair 3.37
Odd or even
Odd number of goals49%fair 2.03
Even number of goals51%fair 1.97
Most likely scores
1-113.5%
1-013.2%
0-112.6%
0-012.4%
2-17.2%
2-07.1%
Half-time / full-time
Draw / Draw20.7%
Burgos / Burgos20.6%
Sabadell / Sabadell18.9%
Draw / Burgos14.1%
Draw / Sabadell13.3%
Questions about Burgos vs Sabadell
Burgos or Sabadell: which side does the model back?
The model gives Burgos the best chance at 35%, with the draw at 33%. Under 50% the favourite fails to win more often than it wins, which is why the double chance is the safer line here.
What is the correct score prediction for Burgos vs Sabadell?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 13.5%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 35% backs the same picture with less variance.
Will both teams score in Burgos vs Sabadell?
The BTTS yes line is rated 44%. Burgos find the net in 66% of simulated matches and Sabadell in 64%.
When is Burgos vs Sabadell and where is the result shown?
Burgos vs Sabadell starts at 19:00 UTC on Sunday, 18 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.