Segunda División
BurgosHomeLWWWD
1:1Half-time 1:1
CastellónAwayLWWWD282745
Burgos winDrawCastellón win
BurgosHomeLWWWDCastellónAwayLWWWD- Kick-off Sun 1 Nov
- Expected goals
- 2.72 1.17 : 1.55
- Favourite
- 45% Castellón
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 55% model chance
- Prices compared
- 6 in the odds table
Best odds for Burgos vs Castellón
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 3.51 | 3.48 | 2.13 | 1.81 | 2.04 | 1.61 | 2.18 | Bet |
 22Bet | 3.92 | 3.42 | 1.97 | 1.98 | 1.83 | 1.77 | 2.05 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 3.90 | 3.20 | 1.98 | 1.81 | 1.91 | 1.65 | 2.10 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 4.02 | 3.42 | 1.96 | 1.98 | 1.83 | 1.77 | 2.05 | Bet |
 Melbet | 3.74 | 3.44 | 2.02 | 1.98 | 1.83 | 1.77 | 2.05 | Bet |
 Stake | 3.70 | 3.40 | 2.02 | 1.85 | 1.88 | 1.73 | 2.00 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Castellón to win partner prices
The top 1X2 prices for Burgos vs Castellón are 4.02 for Burgos at Betwinner, 3.48 for the draw at 1xBet and 2.13 for Castellón at 1xBet.
The best-price payout across the three results is 99.4%, several points better than any single book offers here.
For the goals, over 2.5 pays 1.98 (Melbet) and under 2.5 2.04 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.77 (22Bet) and no 2.18 (1xBet).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
73%
Our prediction
Burgos or Castellón (no draw)
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
BTTSBoth teams to score
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
76% chance1.32fairWon
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
12% chance8.40fairWon
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Castellón, full-time Castellón
28% chance3.58fairLost
First halfFirst-half goal
71% chance1.42fairWon
Burgos vs Castellón odds movement
Burgos win4.02unchanged
Draw3.48-0.07
Castellón win2.13-0.03
Over 2.5 goals1.98unchanged
Under 2.5 goals2.04-0.01
Best price in the comparison at each refresh since the match was first priced on 1 Nov, 23:58 UTC. A shortening price means money has come for that outcome.
Burgos vs Castellón prediction
Burgos vs Castellón prediction and best bet
Castellón are marginally ahead in the Burgos vs Castellón prediction, rated 45% to win this Segunda División match on Sunday, 1 November 2026. Burgos sit at 28% and the draw at 27%.
The goal expectancy is 2.72 in total, split 1.17 to Burgos and 1.55 to Castellón. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 51% and both teams to score 55%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
The pick for Burgos vs Castellón is burgos or Castellón (no draw), a 73% chance. At 1.33 with 1xBet the market prices it at 75%, against 73% from the model.
The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.
Burgos average 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded across their last 5, Castellón 2.2 and 0.4 across 5.
Goals, BTTS and correct score for Burgos vs Castellón
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 76%, over 2.5 at 51%, over 3.5 at 29%; under 2.5 is 49% and under 3.5 is 71%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 51%; Melbet pay 1.98.
Both teams to score is 55%: Burgos find the net in 69% of simulated matches and Castellón in 79%. Burgos keep a clean sheet 21% of the time and Castellón 31%.
Correct score: 1-1 leads at 11.9%, then 0-1 at 10.2% and 1-2 at 9.3%.
With the top scoreline at 11.9%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Burgos vs Castellón; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Castellón, full-time Castellón is the top combination at 28%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 71%.
Every market for Burgos vs Castellón
The grid built from 1.17 and 1.55 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Burgos to win28%4.02
Draw27%3.48
Castellón to win45%2.13
Burgos, draw no bet38%fair 2.62
Castellón, draw no bet62%fair 1.62
Double chance
Burgos or draw55%1.85
Castellón or draw72%1.32
Burgos or Castellón (no draw)73%1.33
Goals
Over 0.5 goals93%fair 1.07
Over 1.5 goals76%fair 1.32
Over 2.5 goals51%1.98
Over 3.5 goals29%fair 3.45
Over 4.5 goals14%fair 7.14
Under 1.5 goals25%fair 4.08
Under 2.5 goals49%2.04
Under 3.5 goals71%fair 1.41
BTTS
Both teams to score55%1.77
Not both teams to score46%2.18
Halves
First-half goal71%fair 1.42
Over 1.5 first-half goals35%fair 2.89
Second-half goal78%fair 1.29
Team goals
Burgos to score69%fair 1.45
Castellón to score79%fair 1.27
Burgos clean sheet21%fair 4.72
Castellón clean sheet31%fair 3.23
Burgos to win to nil20%fair 5.13
Castellón to win to nil29%fair 3.50
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.01
Even number of goals50%fair 1.99
Most likely scores
1-111.9%
0-110.2%
1-29.3%
0-27.9%
1-07.7%
2-17%
Half-time / full-time
Castellón / Castellón27.9%
Burgos / Burgos16.4%
Draw / Castellón15.6%
Draw / Draw15%
Draw / Burgos10.6%
Questions about Burgos vs Castellón
Who will win Burgos vs Castellón?
The model gives Castellón the best chance at 45%, with the draw at 27%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.
Burgos vs Castellón correct score: what does the model say?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 11.9%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 51%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Burgos vs Castellón both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 55%. Burgos find the net in 69% of simulated matches and Castellón in 79%.
When do Burgos play Castellón?
Kick-off is 17:30 UTC on Sunday, 1 November 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.