Primera División RFEF - Group 2
Atlético Madrid IIHomeLDLDD
1:1Half-time 1:0
Real JaénAwayLDDWD532324
Atlético Madrid II winDrawReal Jaén win
Atlético Madrid IIHomeLDLDDReal JaénAwayLDDWD- Kick-off Sun 25 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.14 1.90 : 1.24
- Favourite
- 53% Atlético Madrid II
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 61% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Atlético Madrid II vs Real Jaén odds comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.76 | 3.70 | 3.73 | 1.54 | 2.19 | 1.53 | 2.32 | Bet |
 22Bet | - | - | - | 1.63 | 2.20 | - | - | Bet |
 Melbet | - | - | - | 1.63 | 2.20 | - | - | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Atlético Madrid II to win partner prices
Best 1X2 lines behind the Atlético Madrid II vs Real Jaén prediction: Atlético Madrid II 1.76 (1xBet), draw 3.70 (1xBet), Real Jaén 3.73 (1xBet).
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 90.4%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
Goal market prices: over 2.5 pays 1.63 (22Bet) and under 2.5 2.20 (22Bet); both teams to score yes pays 1.53 (1xBet) and no 2.32 (1xBet).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
53%
Our prediction
Atlético Madrid II to win
Double chanceAtlético Madrid II or Real Jaén (no draw)
77% chance1.20
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
60% chance1.63
BTTSBoth teams to score
61% chance1.53
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
82% chance1.22fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
10% chance9.80fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Atlético Madrid II, full-time Atlético Madrid II
33% chance3.00fair
Atlético Madrid II vs Real Jaén odds movement
Atlético Madrid II win1.76-0.07
Draw3.70-0.10
Real Jaén win3.73-0.47
Over 2.5 goals1.63unchanged
Under 2.5 goals2.20-0.10
Best price in the comparison at each refresh since the match was first priced on 1 Nov, 12:14 UTC. A shortening price means money has come for that outcome.
Atlético Madrid II vs Real Jaén prediction
Our Atlético Madrid II vs Real Jaén prediction and pick
Atlético Madrid II are a narrow favourite in the Atlético Madrid II vs Real Jaén prediction, rated 53% to win this Primera División RFEF - Group 2 match on Sunday, 25 October 2026. Real Jaén sit at 24% and the draw at 23%.
The goal expectancy is 3.14 in total, split 1.90 to Atlético Madrid II and 1.24 to Real Jaén. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 60% and both teams to score 61%.
One score grid produces every chance here: the 1X2 split, the goal lines, BTTS and the scorelines all come from the same pair of expected goals.
Our main pick is atlético Madrid II to win at 53%. The best price in our comparison is 1.76 at 1xBet, which implies 57%, so the model sits 4 points below the market.
The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.
For a safer line, atlético Madrid II or Real Jaén (no draw) covers 77% of outcomes at 1.20.
Form check: Atlético Madrid II have won 0 of their last 5 with 9 scored and 11 conceded, Real Jaén 1 of 5 scoring 5 and conceding 6.
Goals forecast for Atlético Madrid II vs Real Jaén with over 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
Under 2.5 goals is rated 40% and under 3.5 62%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 82% and over 2.5 at 60%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 60%; 22Bet pay 1.63.
BTTS yes stands at 61%. Atlético Madrid II score in 85% of simulations against a 15% clean sheet for Real Jaén; Real Jaén score in 71% while Atlético Madrid II shut them out 29% of the time.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 61%.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10.2%, followed by 2-1 (9.7%) and 1-0 (8.2%).
Even the leading scoreline holds only 10.2% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Atlético Madrid II, full-time Atlético Madrid II leads at 33%. A goal before the break is rated 76%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market for Atlético Madrid II vs Real Jaén
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Atlético Madrid II vs Real Jaén, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
Atlético Madrid II to win53%1.76
Draw23%3.70
Real Jaén to win24%3.73
Atlético Madrid II, draw no bet69%fair 1.46
Real Jaén, draw no bet31%fair 3.18
Double chance
Atlético Madrid II or draw76%1.19
Real Jaén or draw47%1.86
Atlético Madrid II or Real Jaén (no draw)77%1.20
Goals
Over 0.5 goals96%fair 1.04
Over 1.5 goals82%fair 1.22
Over 2.5 goals60%1.63
Over 3.5 goals38%fair 2.60
Over 4.5 goals21%fair 4.78
Under 1.5 goals18%fair 5.59
Under 2.5 goals40%2.20
Under 3.5 goals62%fair 1.62
BTTS
Both teams to score61%1.53
Not both teams to score39%2.32
Halves
First-half goal76%fair 1.32
Over 1.5 first-half goals41%fair 2.42
Second-half goal82%fair 1.22
Team goals
Atlético Madrid II to score85%fair 1.18
Real Jaén to score71%fair 1.41
Atlético Madrid II clean sheet29%fair 3.46
Real Jaén clean sheet15%fair 6.67
Atlético Madrid II to win to nil27%fair 3.76
Real Jaén to win to nil14%fair 7.25
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
1-110.2%
2-19.7%
1-08.2%
2-07.8%
1-26.3%
3-16.1%
Half-time / full-time
Atlético Madrid II / Atlético Madrid II33.3%
Draw / Atlético Madrid II16.3%
Real Jaén / Real Jaén14.2%
Draw / Draw12.3%
Draw / Real Jaén8.8%
Questions about Atlético Madrid II vs Real Jaén
Who will win Atlético Madrid II vs Real Jaén?
The model gives Atlético Madrid II the best chance at 53%, with the draw at 23%. That is a majority outcome: the win is likelier than a draw and a defeat put together.
What scoreline is most likely in Atlético Madrid II vs Real Jaén?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 10.2%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 60%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Will both teams score in Atlético Madrid II vs Real Jaén?
The BTTS yes line is rated 61%. Atlético Madrid II find the net in 85% of simulated matches and Real Jaén in 71%.
When do Atlético Madrid II play Real Jaén?
Kick-off is 11:00 UTC on Sunday, 25 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.