Copa Libertadores
PalmeirasHomeWLWDW
0:1Half-time 0:0Penalties 5:3
FluminenseAwayLLWLW572815
Palmeiras winDrawFluminense win
PalmeirasHomeWLWDWFluminenseAwayLLWLW- Kick-off Thu 22 Oct
- Expected goals
- 2.29 1.58 : 0.71
- Favourite
- 57% Palmeiras
- Over 2.5 goals
- 40% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 42% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Best odds for Palmeiras vs Fluminense
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.74 | 3.38 | 5.88 | 2.37 | 1.61 | 2.18 | 1.61 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Palmeiras to win partner prices
Best 1X2 lines behind the Palmeiras vs Fluminense prediction: Palmeiras 1.74 (1xBet), draw 3.38 (1xBet), Fluminense 5.88 (1xBet).
The best-price payout across the three results is 96.1%, several points better than any single book offers here.
For the goals, over 2.5 pays 2.37 (1xBet) and under 2.5 1.61 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 2.18 (1xBet) and no 1.61 (1xBet).
Each row of the table is one bookmaker and the green cell is the top price in that column. A Bet button means a partner link that we count; rows without one are there for comparison.
57%
Our prediction
Palmeiras to win
Double chancePalmeiras or draw
85% chance1.15
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
60% chance1.61
BTTSNot both teams to score
59% chance1.61
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
67% chance1.50fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-0
16% chance6.25fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Palmeiras, full-time Palmeiras
36% chance2.78fair
Palmeiras v Fluminense head to head
1Palmeiras wins
0Draws
0Fluminense wins
- 15 Oct 26Fluminense1:2Palmeiras
1 meeting since coverage began, 3 goals in total: Palmeiras scored 2, Fluminense scored 1.
Palmeiras vs Fluminense prediction
Palmeiras vs Fluminense prediction, who wins and at what price
Palmeiras are a narrow favourite in the Palmeiras vs Fluminense prediction, rated 57% to win this Copa Libertadores match on Thursday, 22 October 2026. Fluminense sit at 15% and the draw at 28%.
Palmeiras are expected to score 1.58 and Fluminense 0.71, so the total line is 2.29 goals; over 2.5 lands at 40% and BTTS at 42%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
Palmeiras to win is the main selection, rated 57%. 1xBet offer the top price at 1.74. That price implies 57%, 0 points over the model figure.
Palmeiras or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 85% chance, priced 1.15.
Palmeiras average 1.0 goals scored and 0.2 conceded across their last 5, Fluminense 1.2 and 1.4 across 5.
A low-scoring Palmeiras vs Fluminense? Under 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 67%, over 2.5 at 40%, over 3.5 at 20%; under 2.5 is 60% and under 3.5 is 80%.
The goals pick is under 2.5 goals at 60%, best priced 1.61 at 1xBet.
BTTS yes stands at 42%. Palmeiras score in 79% of simulations against a 21% clean sheet for Fluminense; Fluminense score in 51% while Palmeiras shut them out 49% of the time.
Not both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 59%.
The most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 16%, followed by 2-0 (12.6%) and 1-1 (11.4%).
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Palmeiras, full-time Palmeiras leads at 36%. A goal before the break is rated 64%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market rated for Palmeiras vs Fluminense
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for Palmeiras vs Fluminense, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
Palmeiras to win57%1.74
Draw28%3.38
Fluminense to win15%5.88
Palmeiras, draw no bet79%fair 1.26
Fluminense, draw no bet21%fair 4.78
Double chance
Palmeiras or draw85%1.15
Fluminense or draw43%2.15
Palmeiras or Fluminense (no draw)72%1.34
Goals
Over 0.5 goals90%fair 1.11
Over 1.5 goals67%fair 1.50
Over 2.5 goals40%2.37
Over 3.5 goals20%fair 5.03
Over 4.5 goals8%fair 12.05
Under 1.5 goals33%fair 3.00
Under 2.5 goals60%1.61
Under 3.5 goals80%fair 1.25
BTTS
Both teams to score42%2.18
Not both teams to score59%1.61
Halves
First-half goal64%fair 1.56
Over 1.5 first-half goals28%fair 3.64
Second-half goal72%fair 1.40
Team goals
Palmeiras to score79%fair 1.26
Fluminense to score51%fair 1.97
Palmeiras clean sheet49%fair 2.03
Fluminense clean sheet21%fair 4.85
Palmeiras to win to nil45%fair 2.21
Fluminense to win to nil14%fair 7.19
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.02
Even number of goals51%fair 1.98
Most likely scores
1-016%
2-012.6%
1-111.4%
0-010.1%
2-19%
0-17.2%
Half-time / full-time
Palmeiras / Palmeiras36%
Draw / Palmeiras20.1%
Draw / Draw17.2%
Fluminense / Fluminense8.8%
Draw / Fluminense7%
Questions about Palmeiras vs Fluminense
Palmeiras or Fluminense: which side does the model back?
The model gives Palmeiras the best chance at 57%, with the draw at 28%. That is a majority outcome: the win is likelier than a draw and a defeat put together.
Palmeiras vs Fluminense correct score: what does the model say?
1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 16%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 40%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Palmeiras vs Fluminense both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 42%. Palmeiras find the net in 79% of simulated matches and Fluminense in 51%.
When do Palmeiras play Fluminense?
Kick-off is 00:30 UTC on Thursday, 22 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.