Senegal Ligue 1
HLMHomeDWW
3:2Half-time 2:1
Stade de MbourAwayDDL333829
HLM winDrawStade de Mbour win
HLMHomeDWWStade de MbourAwayDDL- Kick-off Fri 30 Oct
- Expected goals
- 1.42 0.75 : 0.67
- Favourite
- 33% HLM
- Over 2.5 goals
- 17% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 26% model chance
- Prices compared
- - awaiting lines
Best odds for HLM vs Stade de Mbour
No bookmaker prices stored for this match yet.
No bookmaker lines are stored for this match yet. Prices appear once the feed carries them, usually within 48 hours of kick-off for the major competitions and the evening before for smaller ones.
71%
Our prediction
HLM or draw
1.40fair
Goal lineUnder 2.5 goals
83% chance1.21fair
BTTSNot both teams to score
74% chance1.35fair
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
42% chance2.41fair
ScorelineCorrect score 0-0
24% chance4.13fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Draw, full-time Draw
31% chance3.24fair
First halfFirst-half goal
47% chance2.12fair
HLM vs Stade de Mbour prediction
Our HLM vs Stade de Mbour prediction and pick
The HLM vs Stade de Mbour prediction is a coin flip by the numbers. Senegal Ligue 1 on Friday, 30 October 2026 gives HLM a 33% chance, Stade de Mbour 29% and the draw 38%, so the value sits in covering two results rather than one.
The goal expectancy is 1.42 in total, split 0.75 to HLM and 0.67 to Stade de Mbour. From that pair the grid gives over 2.5 goals 17% and both teams to score 26%.
One score grid produces every chance here: the 1X2 split, the goal lines, BTTS and the scorelines all come from the same pair of expected goals.
Our main pick is hLM or draw at 71%. Bookmakers have not opened this line yet; the page shows the fair price until they do.
The draw is live at 38%, above the one-in-four baseline, which is why the double chance beats the straight win here.
Over the last 3 matches HLM stand at 2 wins, 1 draws and 0 defeats; Stade de Mbour show 0 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats in 3.
A low-scoring HLM vs Stade de Mbour? Under 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
On the goal lines HLM vs Stade de Mbour reads 42% for over 1.5, 17% for over 2.5 and 6% for over 3.5, which leaves under 2.5 at 83%.
The goals pick is under 2.5 goals at 83%.
Both teams to score is 26%: HLM find the net in 53% of simulated matches and Stade de Mbour in 49%. HLM keep a clean sheet 51% of the time and Stade de Mbour 47%.
Not both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 74%.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for HLM vs Stade de Mbour: 0-0 (24.2%), 1-0 (18.1%) and 0-1 (16.2%).
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Draw, full-time Draw leads at 31%. A goal before the break is rated 47%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
All markets, HLM vs Stade de Mbour
Result, double chance, goal lines, BTTS, scorelines and half-time markets for HLM vs Stade de Mbour, all from one grid; best price where priced, fair price where not, green bar for the top line in each group.
Match result
HLM to win33%fair 2.99
Draw38%fair 2.64
Stade de Mbour to win29%fair 3.47
HLM, draw no bet54%fair 1.86
Stade de Mbour, draw no bet46%fair 2.16
Double chance
HLM or draw71%fair 1.40
Stade de Mbour or draw67%fair 1.50
HLM or Stade de Mbour (no draw)62%fair 1.61
Goals
Over 0.5 goals76%fair 1.32
Over 1.5 goals42%fair 2.41
Over 2.5 goals17%fair 5.78
Over 3.5 goals6%fair 17.86
Over 4.5 goals2%fair 66.67
Under 1.5 goals59%fair 1.71
Under 2.5 goals83%fair 1.21
Under 3.5 goals94%fair 1.06
BTTS
Both teams to score26%fair 3.86
Not both teams to score74%fair 1.35
Halves
First-half goal47%fair 2.12
Over 1.5 first-half goals14%fair 7.41
Second-half goal54%fair 1.85
Team goals
HLM to score53%fair 1.89
Stade de Mbour to score49%fair 2.05
HLM clean sheet51%fair 1.95
Stade de Mbour clean sheet47%fair 2.12
HLM to win to nil31%fair 3.26
Stade de Mbour to win to nil27%fair 3.77
Odd or even
Odd number of goals47%fair 2.12
Even number of goals53%fair 1.89
Most likely scores
0-024.2%
1-018.1%
0-116.2%
1-112.1%
2-06.8%
0-25.4%
Half-time / full-time
Draw / Draw30.9%
HLM / HLM18%
Stade de Mbour / Stade de Mbour15.2%
Draw / HLM14.6%
Draw / Stade de Mbour12.8%
Questions about HLM vs Stade de Mbour
HLM or Stade de Mbour: which side does the model back?
The model gives HLM the best chance at 33%, with the draw at 38%. A probability under 50% means the favourite loses or draws more often than not, so size any bet accordingly.
HLM vs Stade de Mbour correct score: what does the model say?
0-0 is the most likely scoreline at 24.2%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 17%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Is BTTS likely in HLM vs Stade de Mbour?
The BTTS yes line is rated 26%. HLM find the net in 53% of simulated matches and Stade de Mbour in 49%.
When do HLM play Stade de Mbour?
Kick-off is 16:30 UTC on Friday, 30 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.