Stade de Mbour vs Guédiawaye prediction

Stade de Mbour vs Guédiawaye prediction and best bet

Stade de Mbour host Guédiawaye on Sunday, 25 October 2026 in the Senegal Ligue 1, and the model has Stade de Mbour at 43%, the draw at 34% and Guédiawaye at 23%: that is the Stade de Mbour vs Guédiawaye prediction in one line.

Stade de Mbour are expected to score 1.06 and Guédiawaye 0.70, so the total line is 1.76 goals; over 2.5 lands at 25% and BTTS at 35%.

The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.

The pick for Stade de Mbour vs Guédiawaye is stade de Mbour or draw, a 78% chance. Betwinner offer the top price at 1.33. That price implies 75%, 2 points under the model figure.

A 3.1% edge on a flat stake is the margin here, so the selection qualifies as value and not only as the likely result.

The draw is live at 34%, above the one-in-four baseline, which is why the double chance beats the straight win here.

Stade de Mbour average 0.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded across their last 3, Guédiawaye 0.7 and 0.3 across 3.

Under 2.5, both teams to score and the scoreline in Stade de Mbour vs Guédiawaye

Under 2.5 goals is rated 75% and under 3.5 90%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 53% and over 2.5 at 25%.

The goals pick is under 2.5 goals at 75%, best priced 1.34 at 22Bet.

The chance of both teams scoring is 35%, built from Stade de Mbour scoring in 65% of runs and Guédiawaye in 50%; clean sheets come at 50% for Stade de Mbour and 35% for Guédiawaye.

Not both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 66%.

Three scorelines carry the most weight for Stade de Mbour vs Guédiawaye: 1-0 (18.2%), 0-0 (17.2%) and 1-1 (12.8%).

Half-time / full-time: half-time Stade de Mbour, full-time Stade de Mbour is the top combination at 25%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 55%.