Saudi Arabia Pro League
Round 11 Thursday, 22 October 2026
FT
Al-FatehHomeLWLLL
1:3Half-time 1:2
Al ShababAwayWDWW322543
Al-Fateh winDrawAl Shabab win
Saudi Arabia Pro League
Round 11 Thursday, 22 October 2026
FT
Al-FatehHomeLWLLLAl ShababAwayWDWW- Kick-off Thu 22 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.21 1.48 : 1.73
- Favourite
- 43% Al Shabab
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 66% model chance
- Prices compared
- 1 in the odds table
Best odds for Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 2.96 | 3.68 | 2.17 | 1.50 | 2.40 | 1.43 | 2.59 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Al Shabab to win partner prices
The top 1X2 prices for Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab are 2.96 for Al-Fateh at 1xBet, 3.68 for the draw at 1xBet and 2.17 for Al Shabab at 1xBet.
Taking the best price on each outcome gives a payout of 93.4%, against the 94 to 96% a single bookmaker pays on this kind of match.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 1.50 (1xBet) and under 2.5 2.40 (1xBet); both teams to score yes pays 1.43 (1xBet) and no 2.59 (1xBet).
Prices move until kick-off, and the bookmaker page shows the current one; the marked cells are the best lines at the last refresh.
75%
Our prediction
Al-Fateh or Al Shabab (no draw)
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
62% chance1.50
BTTSBoth teams to score
66% chance1.43
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
83% chance1.20fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-1
10% chance9.71fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Al Shabab, full-time Al Shabab
27% chance3.73fair
First halfFirst-half goal
76% chance1.31fair
Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab prediction
Our Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab prediction and pick
The Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab prediction leans to Al Shabab: 43% against 32% for Al-Fateh, with 25% left for the draw, in the Saudi Arabia Pro League on Thursday, 22 October 2026.
Al-Fateh are expected to score 1.48 and Al Shabab 1.73, so the total line is 3.21 goals; over 2.5 lands at 62% and BTTS at 66%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
The pick for Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab is al-Fateh or Al Shabab (no draw), a 75% chance. 1xBet offer the top price at 1.25. That price implies 80%, 5 points over the model figure.
At that price the market already expects this result, so the selection is a probable outcome rather than value. The goal lines carry the better return on Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab.
Form check: Al-Fateh have won 1 of their last 5 with 6 scored and 14 conceded, Al Shabab 3 of 4 scoring 14 and conceding 4.
Goals forecast for Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab with over 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 83%, over 2.5 at 62%, over 3.5 at 40%; under 2.5 is 39% and under 3.5 is 60%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 62%; 1xBet pay 1.50.
Both teams to score is 66%: Al-Fateh find the net in 77% of simulated matches and Al Shabab in 82%. Al-Fateh keep a clean sheet 18% of the time and Al Shabab 23%.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 66%.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab: 1-1 (10.3%), 1-2 (8.9%) and 2-1 (7.6%).
A correct score bet pays long because the probability spreads across dozens of results; the over and under lines above back the same match picture with far less variance.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Al Shabab, full-time Al Shabab is the top combination at 27%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 76%.
All markets, Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab
The grid built from 1.48 and 1.73 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Al-Fateh to win32%2.96
Draw25%3.68
Al Shabab to win43%2.17
Al-Fateh, draw no bet43%fair 2.34
Al Shabab, draw no bet57%fair 1.75
Double chance
Al-Fateh or draw57%1.64
Al Shabab or draw68%1.37
Al-Fateh or Al Shabab (no draw)75%1.25
Goals
Over 0.5 goals96%fair 1.04
Over 1.5 goals83%fair 1.20
Over 2.5 goals62%1.50
Over 3.5 goals40%fair 2.50
Over 4.5 goals22%fair 4.52
Under 1.5 goals17%fair 5.88
Under 2.5 goals39%2.40
Under 3.5 goals60%fair 1.67
BTTS
Both teams to score66%1.43
Not both teams to score34%2.59
Halves
First-half goal76%fair 1.31
Over 1.5 first-half goals42%fair 2.36
Second-half goal83%fair 1.21
Team goals
Al-Fateh to score77%fair 1.30
Al Shabab to score82%fair 1.22
Al-Fateh clean sheet18%fair 5.65
Al Shabab clean sheet23%fair 4.39
Al-Fateh to win to nil16%fair 6.13
Al Shabab to win to nil21%fair 4.78
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
1-110.3%
1-28.9%
2-17.6%
0-17%
2-26.6%
0-26%
Half-time / full-time
Al Shabab / Al Shabab26.8%
Al-Fateh / Al-Fateh19.5%
Draw / Al Shabab13.9%
Draw / Draw12.4%
Draw / Al-Fateh11.1%
Questions about Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab
Who will win Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
The model gives Al Shabab the best chance at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Under 50% the favourite fails to win more often than it wins, which is why the double chance is the safer line here.
What scoreline is most likely in Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
1-1 is the most likely scoreline at 10.3%. The probability is spread across many results, so over 2.5 goals at 62% backs the same picture with less variance.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
The BTTS yes line is rated 66%. Al-Fateh find the net in 77% of simulated matches and Al Shabab in 82%.
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab kick off?
Kick-off is 14:45 UTC on Thursday, 22 October 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.