Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Spartak Kostroma prediction

Our Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Spartak Kostroma prediction and pick

The Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Spartak Kostroma prediction is a coin flip by the numbers. Russia First League on Monday, 26 October 2026 gives Shinnik Yaroslavl a 35% chance, Spartak Kostroma 34% and the draw 32%, so the value sits in covering two results rather than one.

Expected goals are 1.11 for Shinnik Yaroslavl and 1.10 for Spartak Kostroma, a total of 2.21, which puts over 2.5 goals at 37% and both teams to score at 47%.

The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.

Our main pick is shinnik Yaroslavl or Spartak Kostroma (no draw) at 69%. The best price in our comparison is 1.40 at 1xBet, which implies 71%, so the model sits 3 points below the market.

The price is shorter than the chance deserves, so treat it as a likely result rather than a value bet; the double chance and goal markets pay better for the same view of the match.

The draw is live at 32%, above the one-in-four baseline, which is why the double chance beats the straight win here.

Shinnik Yaroslavl average 1.0 goals scored and 1.6 conceded across their last 5, Spartak Kostroma 1.4 and 1.2 across 5.

Under 2.5, both teams to score and the scoreline in Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Spartak Kostroma

Under 2.5 goals is rated 63% and under 3.5 82%; on the other side over 1.5 stands at 65% and over 2.5 at 37%.

The goals pick is under 2.5 goals at 63%, best priced 1.55 at 1xBet.

BTTS yes stands at 47%. Shinnik Yaroslavl score in 67% of simulations against a 33% clean sheet for Spartak Kostroma; Spartak Kostroma score in 67% while Shinnik Yaroslavl shut them out 33% of the time.

The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13.4%, followed by 1-0 (12.2%) and 0-1 (12.1%).

Even the leading scoreline holds only 13.4% of the probability, which is normal for this market and why the goal lines give the steadier route to the same opinion.

In the half-time / full-time market half-time Shinnik Yaroslavl, full-time Shinnik Yaroslavl leads at 20%. A goal before the break is rated 63%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.