Segunda Liga
ChavesHomeLDWWL
Sat 7 Nov
PenafielAwayWLLW202159
Chaves winDrawPenafiel win
ChavesHomeLDWWLPenafielAwayWLLW- Kick-off Sat 7 Nov
- Expected goals
- 3.18 1.13 : 2.05
- Favourite
- 59% Penafiel
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 59% model chance
- Prices compared
- - awaiting lines
Chaves vs Penafiel betting odds by bookmaker
No bookmaker prices stored for this match yet.
Bookmakers have not opened Chaves vs Penafiel yet. The lines usually arrive within two days of kick-off, and the markets above show the fair price from the model until then.
59%
Our prediction
Penafiel to win
1.71fair
Double chancePenafiel or draw
80% chance1.25fair
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
61% chance1.63fair
BTTSBoth teams to score
59% chance1.70fair
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
83% chance1.21fair
ScorelineCorrect score 1-2
10% chance10.10fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Penafiel, full-time Penafiel
38% chance2.65fair
Chaves vs Penafiel prediction
Chaves vs Penafiel prediction and best bet
Chaves host Penafiel on Saturday, 7 November 2026 in the Segunda Liga, and the model has Penafiel at 59%, the draw at 21% and Chaves at 20%: that is the Chaves vs Penafiel prediction in one line.
Expected goals are 1.13 for Chaves and 2.05 for Penafiel, a total of 3.18, which puts over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams to score at 59%.
Every figure on the page comes from one Poisson score grid fitted to those two expected goal numbers, which is why the markets never contradict each other.
The pick for Chaves vs Penafiel is penafiel to win, a 59% chance. No bookmaker has priced it yet, so the fair price from the model is shown instead.
Penafiel or draw is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 80% chance.
The draw sits at only 21%, so the 12 double chance and draw no bet keep more of the price than usual.
Over the last 5 matches Chaves stand at 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats; Penafiel show 2 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in 4.
Goals forecast for Chaves vs Penafiel with over 2.5, BTTS and scoreline
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 83%, over 2.5 at 61%, over 3.5 at 39%; under 2.5 is 39% and under 3.5 is 61%.
Over 2.5 goals is the goals selection at 61%.
The chance of both teams scoring is 59%, built from Chaves scoring in 68% of runs and Penafiel in 87%; clean sheets come at 13% for Chaves and 32% for Penafiel.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 59%.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Chaves vs Penafiel: 1-2 (9.9%), 1-1 (9.6%) and 0-2 (8.7%).
With the top scoreline at 9.9%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Chaves vs Penafiel; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.
Half-time / full-time: half-time Penafiel, full-time Penafiel is the top combination at 38%. The model gives the first half 45% of the goals, which puts a first-half goal at 76%.
Every market rated for Chaves vs Penafiel
The grid built from 1.13 and 2.05 expected goals prices every market here. Where a bookmaker has a line the best price is shown; otherwise the fair price stands in, and the green bar is the strongest line of each group.
Match result
Chaves to win20%fair 4.90
Draw21%fair 4.74
Penafiel to win59%fair 1.71
Chaves, draw no bet26%fair 3.88
Penafiel, draw no bet74%fair 1.35
Double chance
Chaves or draw42%fair 2.41
Penafiel or draw80%fair 1.25
Chaves or Penafiel (no draw)79%fair 1.27
Goals
Over 0.5 goals96%fair 1.04
Over 1.5 goals83%fair 1.21
Over 2.5 goals61%fair 1.63
Over 3.5 goals39%fair 2.54
Over 4.5 goals22%fair 4.63
Under 1.5 goals17%fair 5.75
Under 2.5 goals39%fair 2.59
Under 3.5 goals61%fair 1.65
BTTS
Both teams to score59%fair 1.70
Not both teams to score41%fair 2.43
Halves
First-half goal76%fair 1.31
Over 1.5 first-half goals42%fair 2.39
Second-half goal83%fair 1.21
Team goals
Chaves to score68%fair 1.48
Penafiel to score87%fair 1.15
Chaves clean sheet13%fair 7.75
Penafiel clean sheet32%fair 3.10
Chaves to win to nil12%fair 8.47
Penafiel to win to nil30%fair 3.37
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
1-29.9%
1-19.6%
0-28.7%
0-18.5%
1-36.7%
0-36%
Half-time / full-time
Penafiel / Penafiel37.7%
Draw / Penafiel17.5%
Draw / Draw11.6%
Chaves / Chaves11.4%
Draw / Chaves7.4%
Questions about Chaves vs Penafiel
Chaves or Penafiel: which side does the model back?
The model gives Penafiel the best chance at 59%, with the draw at 21%. That is a majority outcome: the win is likelier than a draw and a defeat put together.
What is the correct score prediction for Chaves vs Penafiel?
1-2 is the most likely scoreline at 9.9%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 61%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Chaves vs Penafiel both teams to score: yes or no?
The BTTS yes line is rated 59%. Chaves find the net in 68% of simulated matches and Penafiel in 87%.
What time does Chaves vs Penafiel kick off?
Kick-off is 14:00 UTC on Saturday, 7 November 2026; the clock at the top of the page converts it to your time zone. The score updates on the page while the match is on and the tips are graded in the results record after full time.