Eerste Divisie
RodaHomeDWWWW
2:1Half-time 1:0
Jong AZAwayWLDWL562123
Roda winDrawJong AZ win
RodaHomeDWWWWJong AZAwayWLDWL- Kick-off Fri 30 Oct
- Expected goals
- 3.49 2.15 : 1.34
- Favourite
- 56% Roda
- Over 2.5 goals
- 67% model chance
- Both teams to score
- 66% model chance
- Prices compared
- 4 in the odds table
Roda vs Jong AZ betting odds by bookmaker
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | BTTS yes | BTTS no | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1xBet | 1.69 | 4.15 | 4.09 | 1.38 | 2.62 | 1.43 | 2.63 | Bet |
 BC.Game | 1.72 | 3.95 | 3.95 | 1.44 | 2.62 | 1.43 | 2.54 | Bet |
 Betwinner | 1.74 | 4.08 | 3.98 | 1.45 | 2.63 | 1.50 | 2.50 | Bet |
 Melbet | 1.74 | 4.08 | 3.98 | 1.45 | 2.63 | 1.50 | 2.50 | Bet |
Best price in each column is marked. Lines move; the bookmaker page shows the current one.
Roda to win partner prices
Betwinner pay the best Roda price at 1.74, 1xBet lead the draw at 4.15 and 1xBet have Jong AZ longest at 4.09.
Shopping the three best prices lifts the payout to 94.4%; one bookmaker on its own returns roughly 94 to 96% on a match like this.
On the goal markets, over 2.5 pays 1.45 (Melbet) and under 2.5 2.63 (Melbet); both teams to score yes pays 1.50 (Melbet) and no 2.63 (1xBet).
Each row of the table is one bookmaker and the green cell is the top price in that column. A Bet button means a partner link that we count; rows without one are there for comparison.
56%
Our prediction
Roda to win
Double chanceRoda or Jong AZ (no draw)
79% chance1.21
Goal lineOver 2.5 goals
67% chance1.45
BTTSBoth teams to score
66% chance1.50
Goal lineOver 1.5 goals
86% chance1.16fair
ScorelineCorrect score 2-1
9% chance10.64fair
Half-time / full-timeHalf-time Roda, full-time Roda
36% chance2.78fair
Roda vs Jong AZ prediction
Our Roda vs Jong AZ prediction and pick
Roda host Jong AZ on Friday, 30 October 2026 in the Eerste Divisie, and the model has Roda at 56%, the draw at 21% and Jong AZ at 23%: that is the Roda vs Jong AZ prediction in one line.
Expected goals are 2.15 for Roda and 1.34 for Jong AZ, a total of 3.49, which puts over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams to score at 66%.
The probabilities come from our match model, fitted to a Poisson pair of expected goals so every market on the page agrees with the others.
Roda to win is the main selection, rated 56%. Betwinner offer the top price at 1.74. That price implies 57%, 2 points over the model figure.
Roda or Jong AZ (no draw) is the cover bet: two results out of three and a 79% chance, priced 1.21.
With the draw down at 21%, draw no bet costs little insurance and the 12 line keeps most of the win price.
Roda average 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded across their last 5, Jong AZ 2.8 and 2.4 across 5.
Roda vs Jong AZ over 2.5 goals, BTTS and correct score
Goal lines from the same grid: over 1.5 at 86%, over 2.5 at 67%, over 3.5 at 46%; under 2.5 is 33% and under 3.5 is 54%.
The goals pick is over 2.5 goals at 67%, best priced 1.45 at Melbet.
BTTS yes stands at 66%. Roda score in 88% of simulations against a 12% clean sheet for Jong AZ; Jong AZ score in 74% while Roda shut them out 26% of the time.
Both teams to score is the stronger side of the BTTS market at 66%.
Three scorelines carry the most weight for Roda vs Jong AZ: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-1 (8.8%) and 2-0 (7%).
With the top scoreline at 9.4%, correct score stays a long-odds market for Roda vs Jong AZ; the goal lines above back the same view with steadier returns.
In the half-time / full-time market half-time Roda, full-time Roda leads at 36%. A goal before the break is rated 79%, since 45% of the expected goals fall in the first half.
Every market rated for Roda vs Jong AZ
Every chance below comes from the same score grid as the 56% / 21% / 23% split above, with the best bookmaker price where one exists and the fair price otherwise; the green bar marks the strongest line in each group.
Match result
Roda to win56%1.74
Draw21%4.15
Jong AZ to win23%4.09
Roda, draw no bet71%fair 1.42
Jong AZ, draw no bet29%fair 3.40
Double chance
Roda or draw77%1.22
Jong AZ or draw44%2.06
Roda or Jong AZ (no draw)79%1.21
Goals
Over 0.5 goals97%fair 1.03
Over 1.5 goals86%fair 1.16
Over 2.5 goals67%1.45
Over 3.5 goals46%fair 2.17
Over 4.5 goals27%fair 3.66
Under 1.5 goals14%fair 7.30
Under 2.5 goals33%2.63
Under 3.5 goals54%fair 1.86
BTTS
Both teams to score66%1.50
Not both teams to score34%2.63
Halves
First-half goal79%fair 1.26
Over 1.5 first-half goals47%fair 2.15
Second-half goal85%fair 1.17
Team goals
Roda to score88%fair 1.13
Jong AZ to score74%fair 1.36
Roda clean sheet26%fair 3.82
Jong AZ clean sheet12%fair 8.62
Roda to win to nil24%fair 4.15
Jong AZ to win to nil11%fair 9.35
Odd or even
Odd number of goals50%fair 2.00
Even number of goals50%fair 2.00
Most likely scores
2-19.4%
1-18.8%
2-07%
3-16.8%
1-06.6%
2-26.3%
Half-time / full-time
Roda / Roda36%
Draw / Roda16.2%
Jong AZ / Jong AZ13.5%
Draw / Draw10.6%
Draw / Jong AZ8%
Questions about Roda vs Jong AZ
Roda or Jong AZ: which side does the model back?
The model gives Roda the best chance at 56%, with the draw at 21%. That is a majority outcome: the win is likelier than a draw and a defeat put together.
Roda vs Jong AZ correct score: what does the model say?
2-1 is the most likely scoreline at 9.4%. Correct score odds are long because dozens of scorelines share the probability; the goal lines (over 2.5 at 67%) are the steadier way to back the same view.
Is BTTS likely in Roda vs Jong AZ?
The BTTS yes line is rated 66%. Roda find the net in 88% of simulated matches and Jong AZ in 74%.
When do Roda play Jong AZ?
Roda vs Jong AZ starts at 19:00 UTC on Friday, 30 October 2026, shown in your local time once the page loads. The live score runs on the page and every tip is graded after the final whistle.